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Defekte Autokratie

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Demokratie, Diktatur, Gerechtigkeit

Zusammenfassung

Zeitgenössische autokratische Regime weichen in verschiedenen Richtungen vom ‚Ideal‘ der geschlossenen Autokratie ab. Der meistdiskutierte autokratische Defekt zeigt sich in der Wahlautokratie. Aber auch bei der Gewähr ziviler Freiheitsrechte, politischer Teilhabe und horizontaler Kontrolle geben sich einige Autokratien recht unautokratisch. In diesem Beitrag skizziere ich ausgehend vom Idealtypus der embedded autocracy und spiegelbildlich zur defekten Demokratie drei Typen defekter Autokratie: liberale, inklusive und kontrollierte Autokratien. Ich ziehe zwei neue und eine altbekannte Datenquelle heran, um autokratische Defekte zu messen, und stelle deren weltweite Entwicklung und gegenwärtige Verteilung dar. In einer quantitativen Ereignisanalyse (survival analysis) untersuche ich den Effekt autokratischer Defekte auf verschiedene Szenarien autokratischen Regime-Zusammenbruchs Es zeigt sich, dass unter Kontrolle auf Defekte in anderen Teilregimen Wahlen keinen konsistenten Einfluss auf das Risiko des Zusammenbruchs ausüben. Am bedrohlichsten für autokratische Regime sind liberale Defekte: Die Kontrolle und Einschränkung ziviler Freiheiten ist überlebenswichtig für autokratische Herrscher.

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  1. Abt. Demokratie und Demokratisierung, Wissenschaftszentrum WZB zu Berlin, Reichpietschufer 58, 10785, Berlin, Deutschland

    Dr. Alexander Schmotz

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  1. Inst.f. Polit. Wissenschaft, Ruprecht-Karls- Univ Inst.f. Polit. Wissenschaft, Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

    Aurel Croissant

  2. Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Sascha Kneip

  3. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin , Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Alexander Petring

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Schmotz, A. (2017). Defekte Autokratie. In: Croissant, A., Kneip, S., Petring, A. (eds) Demokratie, Diktatur, Gerechtigkeit. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-16090-6_30

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