Short-Term Forecasts of the Basic Economic Indicators for the Polish Economy

Abstract

The necessity of short term analysis requires appropriate statistical data. The year became a period to long for such analysis. Quarterly and even monthly forecasts become necessary. Thus, a model satisfying targets of such forecasting can also be estimated on the basis of data for periods shorter than a year. Such models have existed for the countries with developed market economies for many years. The present macro models for the Polish economy and for other Eastern European countries have been based, first of all, on annual data. One of the main reasons of giving up the research was the lack of statistical data, hence, the inability to verify the model empirically. Since 1989 the statistical bulletins present monthly data, also for 1988, concerning the basic quantities of our economy. Hence, there is now an opportunity to estimate the model’s parameters on the basis of monthly or quarterly series, (the transition to the market system, deep recession, high inflation rate). A model based on quarterly or monthly data should have revised specification as against the existing yearly model. Within such a model, more emphasis should also be put on its financial sector. The role of financial instruments in the market economy is very important, as they influence many real processes.