Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level
A general assumption is that experts tend to have a positive bias towards their own field of expert knowledge (see chapter 1.1). Indeed, if the experts’ knowledge and the assessment of importance per topic are correlated, a good correlation for Japan and Germany is found: The experts consider these innovation projects, which they know better, to be more important. No significant correlations could be shown, however, on the level of the 16 technological areas as topics of high and low expert knowledge are mixed. Comparing the expert knowledge of the Japanese and German participants in the Delphi survey and their estimation of the importance of the examined topics per technology area, there are relatively small differences.
KeywordsExpert Knowledge Technical Constraint Funding Constraint Delphi Survey Forecast Realization Time
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.