Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis

  • Jeryl L. Mumpower
Part of the NATO ASI Series book series (volume 35)


A recent study of expert judgments of political riskiness (Mumpower, Livingston, & Lee, in press) contributes both to the continued development of a psychology of expert judgment, as well as to the field of expert systems. (Much of the present paper was adapted from this source.) Judgment analysis provides a yet unrecognized means for developing what are in essence very simple expert systems. Moreover, current efforts in the field of expert systems could be profitably informed by the accumulated results and experience of many years of research by students of the psychology of expert judgment.


Exchange Rate Expert System Infant Mortality Current Account Inflation Rate 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1987

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jeryl L. Mumpower
    • 1
  1. 1.Nelson A. Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at Albany, State University of New YorkUSA

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