Abstract
The simple forecasting model of the supply interruption rate with widespread damage to the water supply network has been proposed by Hoshiya et al. In this model, the supply interruption rate is estimated by the linear multiple regression model. However, there are some unstable conditions in the calculation of multiple regression analysis. Since the intensity of importance of nodes and links is used as an explanatory variable, it is necessary to get a proper estimation of its degree of importance. Therefore, this study aims to consider its instability and to consider how to evaluate the intensity of importance.
Since the degree of importance is a vague variable, the other object of this study is to discuss the applicability of fuzzy theories to the forecasting model of the supply interruption rate. The examined fuzzy theories are the fuzzy quantification theory, type I and type II.
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References
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© 1994 Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg
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Chiba, T., Shimizu, Y. (1994). Forecasting of Supply Interruption Rate with Widespread Damage to the Water Supply Network. In: Spanos, P.D., Wu, YT. (eds) Probabilistic Structural Mechanics: Advances in Structural Reliability Methods. International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85092-9_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85092-9_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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