Expectation Ratio Versus Probability

  • F. Vasco Costa
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Engineering book series (LNENG, volume 61)


The design of structural systems is usually based on the consideration of a probability of failure regarded as acceptable. As the gravity of the consequences of a failure with a given probability of occurrence, as well as the expenses required to reduce such probability, can much vary from a structural system to another, it is advocated that the design of structural systems be based, instead, on the consideration of the ratio of the expectation of benefits to be gained by rendering a system safer to the consequent increase in its cost.


Structural System Alternative Design Wide Limit Structural Safety Future Benefit 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Bescher, G., M. Elizabeth Pate and Richard de Neufville: RISK OF DAM FAILURE IN BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS, Water Resources Research, Vol. 16, No 3, June 1980.Google Scholar
  2. Burke, F.E.: DECISIONS ABOUT PUBLIC DANGERS. A MODEL STRUCTURE FOR A VALUATION PROCESS, Technological Risks, N.C. Lind, ed. University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1982.Google Scholar
  3. Ferry Borges, J. and M. Castanheta: STRUCTURAL SAFETY, National Laboratory of Civil Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 3rd Ed. 1985.Google Scholar
  4. Guedes-Soares, C. and P.C. Viana: SENSITIVITY OF THE RESPONSE OF MARINE STRUCTURES TO WAVE CLIMATOLOGY, Computer Modeling in Ocean Engineering, Schrefler & Zienkiewics (eds.), 1988, Balkema, Rotterdam.Google Scholar
  5. Lind, N.C. (ed): TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS, Proceedings of a Symposium held in 1981 at the University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1982.Google Scholar
  6. Sorensen, T. and O.J. Jensen: EXPERIENCE GAINED FROM BREAKWATER FAILURES, Breakwaters 85, Thomas Telford, London, 1985.Google Scholar
  7. Swenson, D. and B. Fischhof: LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONS, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 5, 1985.Google Scholar
  8. Vasco Costa, F.: RELIABILITY OF PARTLY DAMAGED STRUCTURES, First IFIP WG 7.5 Working Conference, Sprinter-Verlag, Berlin, 1987.Google Scholar
  9. Vasco Costa, F.: PERCEPTION OF RISKS AND REACTION TO ACCIDENTS, Second IFIP WC 7.5 Working Conference, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1987.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© International Federation for Information Processing, Geneva, Switzerland 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • F. Vasco Costa
    • 1
  1. 1.ConsulmarLisbonPortugal

Personalised recommendations