Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Ice-Structure Interaction pp 507–540Cite as

Structural Risk Model of Arctic Shipping

  • Conference paper

Abstract

This paper discusses Arctic shipping risk analysis. A program of research was started in 1982 to develop a risk analysis model. A computer program, ASPEN (Arctic Shipping Probability Evaluation Network) has been the focal point of the research. The elements of the program mirror the elements of the problem. These include: environmental definition, the navigation and ice avoidance process (including human behaviour), ship/ice collision mechanics and structural limit states (failure mechanics). All aspects of the problem are variable and must be treated statistically. Related studies to obtain the statistical parameters are discussed. The numerical methods employed by the program are described. Many fundamental issues remain unsolved, particularly those related to correlated variables. The paper concludes with a discussion of required developments.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Benjamin, J.R. and Cornell, C.A. 1970. Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers. McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bercha, F.G. 1979. The development and application of multi-model ice failure theory. IUTAM Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Ice. Ed. P. Tryde, Copenhagen, pp. 16–27.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J.B. 1965. Ultimate longitudinal strength. Transactions RINA, Vol. 107, pp. 411–430.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daidola, J.C. and Basar, N.S. 1980. Probability design for ship hull structural strength. Spring Meeting/STAR Symposium, SNAME, California, pp. 105–124.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daley, C.G. 1984. ASPEN, Arctic shipping probability evaluation network — group III studies. Report by Arctec Canada Limited 1305C to Coast Guard Northern.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daley, C. G. 1985. Studies in Connection with updating the Arctic shipping pollution prevention regulations group IV — further development of ship/ice collision probability model — ASPEN. Reported by Arctec Canada Limited to Coast Guard Northern, Transport Canada Report TP 6274E.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daley, C.G. and Ferregut, C. 1988. Strength and stability of framing for ice strengthening. Report by Fleet Technology Limited to Coast Guard Northern, Transport Canada, Report No. TP 9157E.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daley, C.G., St. John, J.W. and Seibold, F. 1984. Analysis of the extreme ice loads measured on the USCGC POLAR SEA. Transactions of SNAME, Vol. 92, pp. 241–252.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, R.Y. et al. 1981. Results of full scale trials of the CCGS PIERRE RADISSON. STAR Symposium, Ottawa, pp. 291–310.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferregut, C. and Daley, C.G. 1988. ASPEN — Structural modelling using limit states. Fleet Technology Report to Coast Guard Northern, Transport Canada Report TP 9472E.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferregut, C., Perchanok, M. and Daley, C.G. 1987. Ship/ice collision probabilities in Arctic shipping. Port and Ocean Engineering Under Arctic Conditions, Vol. I, W.M. Sackinger and M.D. Jeffries (Eds.) University of Alaska, Fairbanks, pp. 631–643.

    Google Scholar 

  • Galamtos, T.V. and Ravindra, M.F. 1978. Properties of steel for use in LRPD. Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 104, No. 519, pp. 1459–1468.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghoneim, G.A. 1983. KIGORIAK and ROBERT LEMEUR full scale impact tests for 1983. Final Report by Canadian Marine Drilling Limited to Coast Guard Northern. Government of Canada. 1972. Arctic shipping pollution prevention regulations. Canada Gazette, Part II, Vol. 106, No. 20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hakala, M. and Riska, K. 1983. Results from statistical measuring system onboard MV ARCTIC 1982. Report by VTT to Canadian Coast Guard Northern.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasofer, A.M. and Lind, N.C. 1974. An exact and invariant first-order reliability format. J. Engineering, Mech. Div., ASCE, Vol. 100, pp. 111–121.

    Google Scholar 

  • ISSC. 1985. Applied design. Report of Committee V. 2, Proceedings of the Ninth International Ship Structures Congress, Vol. 2, Genova, pp. 405–471.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, D.J.L. and Baker, K.A. 1984. Resistance factors for steel highway bridges. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 324–334.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, D.J.L. and Gadaly, M.M.A. 1980. Limit states design of steel structures — performance factors. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 7, pp. 45 – 77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kheisin, D.E. 1972. Use of probability methods in estimating the manoeuvering qualities of ships in ice. Publ. in Ice Navigation Qualitites of Ships, Ed. by Kheisin and Popov, CRREL Translation 417, pp. 40–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kheisin, D.E., Likhomanov, Y.A. and Kurdyumov, V.A. 1973. Determination of specific breaking energy and contact pressures produced by the impact of a solid against ice. Symposium on Physical Methods of Studying Snow and Ice, Leningrad, Translation by CRREL No. TL539, pp. 210–219.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kudishkin, Y.S. 1972. On the distribution of probabilities of the number of impacts of ship’s hull against the ice. Publ. in Ice Navigation Qualities of Ships, Ed. by Kheisin and Popov, CRREL Translation 417. pp. 136–141.

    Google Scholar 

  • Noble, P. and Menon, B. 1981. Laboratory investigation of ice impact pressure. Report 450 by Arctec Canada to Canadian Coast Guard Northern.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perchanok, M.S., Ferregut, C. and Brow, R. 1989. A probabilistic ice information system for Canadian waterways. Marine Technology Society Journal, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 28–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perchanok, M.S., Wells, D.G. Lowings, M.G. 1986. Merchant ship ice navigation studies in the Canadian Arctic. Intl. Polar Transportation Conference, Vancouver, pp. 859–857.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rackwitz, R. and Fiessler, B. 1978. Structural reliability under combined random load sequences. Computers and Structures, Pergamon Press, Vol. 9, pp. 489–494.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Ratzlaff, K.P. and Kennedy, D. J.L. 1986. Behaviour and ultimate strength of continuous steel plates subjected to uniform transverse loads. Can. Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 76–85.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tam, G. 1980. Development of an ice extrusion model — interim report in task 4 of group I studies for update of ASPPR. Report IR 586A by Arctec Canada Limited to Canadian Coast Guard.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varsta, P. 1977. Measurement and analysis of ice induced stresses in the shell of an icebreaker. Helsinki Winter Navigation Research Board, Report 21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Voelker, R.P. et al. 1981. Evaluating commercial Arctic marine transportation with polar class icebreakers. STAR Symposium Ottawa, pp. 145–158.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vuorio, J. et al. 1979. Long term measurements of ice pressure and ice-induced stresses on the icebreaker SISU in winter 1978. Helsinki Winter Navigation Research Board, Report 28.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fleet Technology Limited, 311 Legget Drive, Kanata, Ontario, Canada, K2K 1Z8

    C. G. Daley & R. Brown

  2. Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, 79968-0516, USA

    C. Ferregut

Authors
  1. C. G. Daley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. C. Ferregut
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Brown
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Marine Dynamics, National Research Council, Station A, P.O. Box 12093, A1B 3T5, St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada

    Stephen Jones  & Joy Tillotson  & 

  2. Ocean Engineering Research Centre Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, A1B 3X5, St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada

    Richard F. McKenna  & Ian J. Jordaan  & 

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1991 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Daley, C.G., Ferregut, C., Brown, R. (1991). Structural Risk Model of Arctic Shipping. In: Jones, S., Tillotson, J., McKenna, R.F., Jordaan, I.J. (eds) Ice-Structure Interaction. International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-84100-2_25

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-84100-2_25

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-84102-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-84100-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation