An Analytic Method to Estimate Uncertainty in a Risk Function

  • Henrik Kortner
Conference paper


This paper presents a method for estimating the uncertainty in a probabilistic risk analysis. Based on the estimation of probability intervals of some basic parameters of a risk function, the method estimates a probability interval for the risk function. An example of risk analysis of releases of flammable materials is shown.


Risk Analysis Dispersion Model Risk Function Probability Interval Accidental Release 
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  1. S. Kaplan and B.J. Garrick: On the Quantitative Definition of Risk, Risk Analysis, volume 1, no. 1, 1981.Google Scholar
  2. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission: Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power plants, WASH-1400, 1975.Google Scholar
  3. G. Apostolakis and S. Kaplan: Pitfalls in Risk Calculations, Reliability Engineering, 2, 1981.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989

Authors and Affiliations

  • Henrik Kortner
    • 1
  1. 1.Norsk Hydro, Research CentrePorsgrunnNorway

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