Abstract
The effects of temporal and magnitude dependence among seismic recurrences, which are ignored in the conventional Poisson earthquake model, are studied. The potential impact of non-Poissonian assumptions on practical hazard estimates are considered. A broad set of recurrence models with memory are analyzed using convenient second-moment time-magnitude statistics to parameterize a general class of semi-Markov models. The conventional time- and slip-predictable models are included and studied as special cases. Conditions are identified under which the Poisson model provides a sufficient engineering hazard estimate. i.e., either conservative or unconservative by a factor of no more than three. The Poisson approximation is found to be sufficient for all but what is expected to be a small subset of the cases encountered in practice.
Submitted to the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America for possible publication.
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Cornell, C.A., Winterstein, S.R. (1987). Temporal and Magnitude Dependence in Earthquake Recurrence Models. In: Lin, Y.K., Minai, R. (eds) Stochastic Approaches in Earthquake Engineering. Lecture Notes in Engineering, vol 32. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83252-9_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83252-9_2
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