Skip to main content

Investigating Sources of Error in the Management of Crises: Theoretical Assumptions and a Methodological Approach

  • Conference paper
Book cover Information Systems: Failure Analysis

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((NATO ASI F,volume 32))

  • 202 Accesses

Abstract

It is generally recognized that the methods used to collect and evaluate data on major human events, such as policy fiascos and disasters, are heavily influenced by the investigator’s theoretical assumptions about what causal sequences are likely to account for such events. Accordingly, I begin this paper with my main theoretical assumptions about sources of error in decision making and then turn to methodological questions pertaining to empirical research on failures of information systems.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Abelson, R. P. and A. Levi. (1985). Decision making and decision theory. In G. Lindzey and E. Aronson. The Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. I. New York: Random House, pp. 231–310.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brecher, M. (1980). Decisions in Crisis: Israel 1967 and 1973. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brzezinski, Z. (1983). Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Advisor, 1977–1981. New York: Farrar, Straus, Giroux.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, D. T. (1975). “Degrees of freedom” and the case study. Comparative Political Sudies, 8, 178–193.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, D. T., and J. C. Stanley. (1966). Experimental and Quasi-experimental Designs for Research. Chicago: Rand McNally.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook, T. D., L. C. Leviton, and W. R. ShadishJr. (1985). Program evaluation. In Lindzey, G. and Aronson, E. The Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. I. New York: Random House. pp 699–777.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper, C. L. (1970). The Lost Crusade. New York: Dodd, Mead.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B., and R. Beyth. (1975). I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once future things. Organization Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • George, A. (1974). Adaptation to stress in political decision making: The individual, small group, and organizational contexts. In G. V. Coelho, D. A. Hamburg, and J. E. Adams (Eds.), Coping and Adaptation. New York: Basic Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • George, A. (1980). Presidential Decision Making in Foreign Policy: The Efective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder, Colorado: Westview.

    Google Scholar 

  • George, A., and Smoke, R. (1974). Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, D., and Conolley, E. (1974). “Groupthink” and Watergate. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Psychological Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Herek, G., P. Huth, P., and I. L. Janis. (In preparation). Decision making during international crises: Is quality of process related to outcome?.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holsti, O. R. and George, A. L. (1975). The effects of stress on the performance of foreign policy makers. Political Science Annual, 6, 255–319.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I. L. (1982a). Groupthink: Psychological Sudies of Policy Decisions and FIascoes. (Revised and enlarged edition of Victims of Groupthink, 1972). Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I. L. (1982b). Counteracting the adverse effects of concurrence seeking in policy planning groups: Theory and research perspectives. In H. Brandstatter, J. Davis, and G. Stocker Kreichgauer (Eds.) Group Decision Making. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I. L. (1985). Sources of error in strategic decision making. In J. M. Pennings (Ed.). Organizational Strategy and Change. San Francisco: Jossey Bass. pp. 157–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I. L. (1986). Problems of international crisis management in the nuclear age. Journal of Social Issues.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I. L., and Mann, L. (1977). Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment. New York: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A. (Eds). (1982). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence, P. R. (1985). In defense of a rational approach to change. In J. M. Pennings (Ed). Organizational Strategy and Change. San Francisco: Jossey Bass. pp. 373–382.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lebow, R. N. (1981). Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindblom, C. E. (1980). The Policy Making Process (Second edition). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Middleton, D. (1981). Going the military route. New York Times Magazine, May 17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura, R. T. and Smallwood, F. (1980). The Politics of Policy Implementation. New York: St. Martin’s.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nisbett, R.E., and Ross, L. (1980). Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oskamp, S. (1984). Applied Social Psychology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pennings, J. M. (Ed.). (1985). Organizational Strategy and Change. San Francisco: Jossey Bass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinn, J. B. (1980). Strategies for Change: Logical Incrementalism. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raven, B. H. (1974). The Nixon group. Journal of Social Issues, 30, 297–320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raven, B. H., and Rubin, J. Z. (1977). Social Psychology: People in Groups. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reichardt, C. S., and Cook, T. D. (1979). Beyond qualitative versus quantitative methods. In T. D. Cook and C. S. Reichardt (Eds). Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Evaluation. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scriven, M. (1976). Maximizing the power of causal investigations: The modus operandi method. In G. V. Glass (Ed.). Evaluation Studies. Review Annual Volume I. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, G. (1980). Secrecy, ill iuck cited in failure of Iran rescue raid. Los Angeles Times, August 24, pp. 1, 18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H.A. (1967). Motivational and emotional controls of cognition. Psychological Review, 74, 29–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H. A. (1976). Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organization. (2nd ed., New York: MacMillan, 1957)

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H. A. (1976). Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organization. 3rd ed., New York: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Starbuck, W. H. (1983). Organizations as action generators. American Sociological Review, 48, 91–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Starbuck, W. H. (1985). Acting first and thinking later: Theory versus reality in strategic change. In J. M. Pennings (Ed.) Organizational Strategy and Change. San Francisco: Jossey Bass. pp. 336–372.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stein, J. G., and Tanter, R. (1980). Rational decision making: Israel’s security choices, 1967. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, S. E. (1982). The availability bias in social perception and interaction. In D.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 190-200.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tetlock, P. E. (1983). Psychological research on foreign policy: A methodological overview. In L. Wheeler (Ed.), Review of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 4. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1987 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Janis, I.L. (1987). Investigating Sources of Error in the Management of Crises: Theoretical Assumptions and a Methodological Approach. In: Wise, J.A., Debons, A. (eds) Information Systems: Failure Analysis. NATO ASI Series, vol 32. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83091-4_16

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83091-4_16

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-83093-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-83091-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics