Skip to main content

Introduction: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Arms Control

  • Conference paper

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((NATO ASI F,volume 26))

Abstract

Even though desires for limiting, if not eliminating, weapons and armies seem to be almost as old as human society2), not until the invention and accumulation of nuclear weapons, with their potential of endangering the very survival of mankind, have these desires been transmuted into internationally accepted imperatives. Since the late 1950’s, the superpowers have been engaged in a series of bilateral negotiations on the limitation of strategic nuclear weapons, which resulted in several agreements in the 1960’s and 1970’s3).

Sections of this contribution are contained in a joint paper with John D. Kettelle published in the Journal of the German Society of Operations Research (DGOR) “OR Spectrum” 3/86. The authors thank its publishers for the permission of reproducing the respective parts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • ACDA (1976): Verification: The Crucial Element in Arms Control. Publication No. 85, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Avenhaus, R., Fichtner, J., Huber, R.K. (1984): Conventional Force Equilibria - Some Arms Control Implications of Analytical Combat Models. In: Supplemental Ways for Improving International Stability (Chestnut, Genser, Kopacek, Wierzbicki, Eds. ), Oxford, pp. 201–211

    Google Scholar 

  • Avenhaus, R. (1986): Safeguards Systems Analysis. New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bertram, Ch. (1978): The Future of Arms Control: Part II, Arms Control and Technological Change: Elements of a New Approach. Adel phi Paper No. 145, IISS, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonder, S. (1984): Findings of Workshop A. In: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Defense (Huber, Ed. ), New York, pp. 37–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Brams, S.J. (1985): Superpower Games. New Haven

    Google Scholar 

  • CCA (1956): Resolution of the Commission for Conventional Armaments, Proposals of 12th August 1948. In: Documents on Disarmaments, 1945–1959, Vol. I, 1945–1956, p. 175

    Google Scholar 

  • Dürr, H.P. (1985): Der Himmel wird zum Vorhof der Hölle. Der Spiegel, Nr. 29, 1985, pp. 28–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Fichtner, J. (1985): Statistische Tests zur Abschreckung von Fehlverhalten - Eine mathematische Analyse von Überwachungssystemen mit Anwendungen. Dissertation, Universität der Bundeswehr München

    Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, D.A.V. 1982; Safeguards - A Model for General Arms Control? IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 45–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, R.L. (1976): Defending the Central Front: The Balance of Forces. Adelphi Paper No. 127, IISS, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibson, J.E. (1984): Some Important Issues in Allied Command Europe to which Analysis Could Contribute. In: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Defence (Huber, Ed. ), New York 1984, pp. 3–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldblat, J. (1982); Agreements for Arms Control: A Critical Survey. SIPRI Publication. London

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1980): Verifikationssysteme bei einer ausgewogenen Verminderung von Streitkräften in Mitteleuropa. Europa Archiv, Folge 6, pp. 189–200

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoeber, F.P. (1981): How Little is Enough? SALT und Security in the Long Run. New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, R.K. (1980): Die Systemanalyse in der Verteidigungsplanung - Eine Kritik und ein Vorschlag aus systemanalytischer Sicht. Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau No. 5, 1980, pp. 133–143

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, R.K. (Ed.): Systems Analysis and Modelling in Defense. New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, R.K., Hofmann, H.W. (1984): Gradual Defensivity - An Approach to a Stable Conventional Force Equilibrium in Europe? Operational Research’84 (J.P. Brans, Ed. ), Amsterdam-New York-Oxford, pp. 197–211

    Google Scholar 

  • IAEA (1971): The Structure and Content of Agreements between the Agency and States Required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. INFCIRC/153, International Atomic Energy Agency, Wien

    Google Scholar 

  • Karkoszka, A. (1977): Strategic Disarmament, Verification and National Security, Chapter 2. London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kettelle, J.D. (1985): Information Management in Arms Control Negotiations. In: Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control (Avenhaus and Huber, Eds. ), New York and London, pp. 445–461

    Google Scholar 

  • Krass, A.S. (1985): The Soviet View of Verification. In: Verification and Arms Control ( W.C. Potter, Ed.), Lexington, Mass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lanchester, F.W. (1914): Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm - No. V, The Principle of Concentration. Engineering 98 (1914), pp. 422–423

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller, A.C. (1983): Grundzüge einer europäischen Sicherheitspolitik für die 80er und 90er Jahre mit einem Vorwort von Prof. H.P. Dürr. Max-Planck-Institut für Physik und Astrophysik, Arbeitsgruppe Gottstein. München

    Google Scholar 

  • Nerlich, U. (1985): Rüstungskontrolle oder über den politischen Umgang mit der Notwendigkeit nuklearer Abschreckung. In: Weltpolitik: Strukturen - Akteure - Perspektiven. (Kaiser und Schwarz, Eds. ), Stuttgart, pp. 153–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Oxford (1983): Concise Oxford English Dictionary, 7th Edition (J.B. Sykes, Ed.). Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson, L.F. (1939): Generalized Foreign Politics. British Journal of Psychology, Monograph Supplement No. 23

    Google Scholar 

  • Schell, J. (1982): The Fate of Earth, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulte, L. (1985): Das Schlagwort von der “defensiven Umrüstung”. Europäische Wehrkunde/WWR 9, 1985, pp. 474–479

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulte, L. (1986): Die Strategie der Verweigerung. Truppenpraxis 2 /1986, pp. 4–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Stein, G. (1986): Die Nichtverbreitung in der Überprüfung. Atomwirtschaft - Atomtechnik, Vol. 31, pp. 70–73

    Google Scholar 

  • Stewart, K.B. (1970): A Cost-Effectiveness Approach to Inventory Verification. Proceedings of the IAEA Symposium Safeguards Techniques in Karlsruhe, Vol. II, Vienna, pp. 387–409

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, J.G. (1979): Attrition Modelling. In: Operational Research Games for Defense (Huber et al., Eds. ). München-Wien, pp. 139–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster (1966): 3rd International Dictionary. Merriam, Springfield, Mass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilkie, T. (1985): New Scientist, 3rd October 1985, p. 26

    Google Scholar 

  • Wittekindt, R. (1984): Verification of MBFR-Agreements - A Systems Analysis. In: Quantitative Assessments in Arms Control (Avenhaus and Huber, Eds. ), New York, pp. 383–411

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1986 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Avenhaus, R., Huber, R.K. (1986). Introduction: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Arms Control. In: Avenhaus, R., Huber, R.K., Kettelle, J.D. (eds) Modelling and Analysis in Arms Control. NATO ASI Series, vol 26. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82943-7_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82943-7_1

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-82945-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-82943-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics