Abstract
Uncertainty in ecological models (O’Neill and Gardner, 1979) is due to a number of factors. The total error associated with model predictions can only be assessed by a validation process (Caswell, 1976; Mankin et al., 1977) which tests the model against independent data (Shaeffer, 1979). However, such validation experiments are often infeasible, and modeling research has focused on individual factors that contribute to total error. These factors include assumptions in model construction (Harrison, 1978; Cale and Odell, 1979; O’Neill and Rust, 1979), measurement errors (O’Neill, 1973; Argentesi and Olivi, 1976), and errors in formulating ecosystem processes (O’Neill, 1979a).
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© 1983 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg/Austria
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Gardner, R.H., O’Neill, R.V. (1983). Parameter Uncertainty and Model Predictions: A Review of Monte Carlo Results. In: Beck, M.B., van Straten, G. (eds) Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82054-0_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82054-0_11
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