Abstract
The essence of the paper deals with select sources of uncertainties associated with Monte Carlo simulation of Life Cycle Costs (LCC). Fundamental aspects of the Monte Carlo Method are discussed, followed by uncertainties of the LCC simulation model itself stemming from such considerations as underlying motivation, purpose and objectives of modeling effort, perception of reality, and reasonableness of supporting assumptions. Sources of input data uncertainty are identified by characteristics of aggregation, heterogeneity, coarseness, paucity, and inexactitude of reporting/recording observations. The assumptions which lead to selection of the event governing probability density function and its parameter(s) are deemed principal sources of uncertainty. The uncertainty connected with generation of random numbers and their distribution completes the paper.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
List of References
Nelson, J.R.: Life Cycle Analysis of Aircraft Turbine Engines, R-2103-AF, Rand Corporation, November 1977.
Naval Applied Science Laboratory-ASW/SPO, Handbook for Systems Application of Redundancy, August 1976, DTIC-AD 804277.
Fiorello, M.: Estimating Life Cycle Costs-A Case Study of the A7D, Rand Report R-1518-PR, February 1975.
A.F. Manual 66–1, Department of the Air Force, HQ USAF, Washington, D.C. 20330, 1976.
Fiorello, M.: Getting Real Data for Life Cycle Costing, Rand Report P-5345, January 1975.
Leuba, H.R.: Compensating for Errors in Reported Time-Methodology and Rationale, ARINC Publication No. 267–02-2388, Washington, D.C, 1964.
Cook, T.R.: Modeling Maintainability for Aircraft Systems, AFIT Report GE-EE-71–6, AFIT-WPAFB, Ohio 45433, 1971.
Massey, F.J.: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit, JASA, No. 42, 1951.
Kuiper, N.H.: Test Concerning Random Points on a Circle, Proceedings of the Koninklijke Nederlandske Akademie Van Weterschappen, Vol 63, 1963.
Anderson, T.W.; and Darling, D.A.: Asymptotic Theory of Certain Goodness of Fit Criteria Based on Stochastic Processes, AMS, Vol 23, 1952.
Regulinski, T.L.:Optimization of Reliability Processes, University of Bradford, Bradford, U.K., 1977.
Kendall, M.G.; and Stuart, A.:The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol 2, 3rd Edition, C. Griffin and Co., Ltd, London, UK, 1973.
Timson, F.S.: Practicality of Life Cycle Cost Models as Aids to Acquisiton Decision Making: Confidence in Estimates, Rand Report WN 8237-ARPA, 1978.
Hemmersley, J.M.; and Handscomb, D.C:Monte Carlo Methods, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1965.
Kendall, M.G.; and Babington-Smith, B.: Randomness and Random Sampling Numbers, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol 101, No. 1, pp. 147 through 177, 1938.
Bendat, J.S.; and Pierson, A.G.:Measurement and Analysis of Random Data, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1966.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1983 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Regulinski, T.L. (1983). Uncertainties in Monte Carlo Simulation of Life Cycle Costs. In: Skwirzynski, J.K. (eds) Electronic Systems Effectiveness and Life Cycle Costing. NATO ASI Series, vol 3. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82014-4_32
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82014-4_32
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-82016-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-82014-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive