Summary
The effects of mass screening for disease are determined by many factors. Taking into account of all these factors, and of interactions between them is not possible by a purely “judgmental approach”. Numerical experimentation with mathematical models is needed in order to evaluate existing screening programs and in order to assess the results of alternative policies.
The state of the art in model building for screening is briefly discussed, and the reasons for developing a Monte-Carlo simulation model are explained. It is stressed that an a priori emphasis in the model on one particular factor is not justifiable: the reliability of the estimation of the effects of a screening program is determined by the least careful modelled factor, and not by the most careful modelled factor.
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Habbema, J.D.F., van Oortmarssen, G.J. (1980). Decision Making on Mass Screening for Disease I. The Use of Mathematical Models. In: Anderson, J., et al. Modelle in der Medizin. Medizinische Informatik und Statistik, vol 22. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-81512-6_48
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-81512-6_48
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