Summary
The Mass screening program on cervical cancer in the Netherlands started in 1976. Decision making on prolongation or modification of the program will depend on a careful evaluation of the results.
Effects of mass screening cannot be measured in a direct way, and therefore use of simulation models has been advocated, in order to estimate effects of different screening policies. A computer simulation programme which calculates the effects of screening in a birth cohort of the population has been developed by Knox. We extended this program to obtain predictionsof the effects for the population as a whole, and applied it to the dutch screening circumstances. When the effects of Papsmears made outside screening programs by general practitioners and gynaecologists are taken into account, the long term effect of mass screening on cervical cancer mortality is estimated to be a 35% decrease at most. The reliability of the results of the simulation model will improve when more results from (Dutch) mass screening and (Dutch) cancer and cytology registries become available, and by carefully assessing the sensitivity of results to variation of the model assumptions.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Albert, A., Gertman, P.M. and Louis, T.A. (1978). Screening for the Early Detection of Cancer. Mathematical Biosciences 40, 1–144.
Boyes, D.A., Worth, A.J. and Fidler, H.K. (1970). The results of Treatment of 4389 Cases of Preclinical Cervical Squamous Carcinoma. J. Obstet. Brit. Cwlth. 77, 769–780.
Collette, H.J.A. (1976). Epidemiologische Aspekten van het Cervixcarcinoom. Boeijinga, Apeldoorn (In Dutch).
Fidler, H.K., Boyes, D.A. and Worth, A.J. (1968). Cervical Cancer Detection in British Columbia. J. Obst. Gynaec. Brit. Cwlth. 75, 392–404.
Guzick, D.S. (1978). Efficacy at screening for cervical cancer: a review. Am. J. Public Health 68, 125–134.
Habbema, J.D.F. and Oortmarssen, G.J. van (1979). Decision making on mass screening for disease. I. The use of mathematical models. To be published in: Modelle in der Medizih — Theorie und Praxis — Kongresbände GMDS
Hakama, M. and Räsänen-Virtanen, U. (1976). Effects of a Mass Screening Program on the Risk of Cervical Cancer. Am. J. Epidemiol. 103, 512–517.
Harmse, N.S. and de Waard, F. (1973). Recente ontwikkelingen van de kankerfrequentie in drie registratiegebieden in Nederland. T.soc.Geneesk. 51, 670–679 (In Dutch).
IIASA (1975). Proceedings of the joint IIASA/WHO workshop on screening for cervical cancer. Laxenburg, Aprial 1–2, 1975.
Knox, E.G. (1973). A simulation system for screening procedures. In: G. McLachlan (ed.): The future and present indicatives. Nuffield Provincial Hospital Trust-London.
Knox, E.G. (1975a). Computer Simulation Studies. of Alternative Population Screening Policies. In: Systems Aspects of Health Planning. N.T.J. Bailey, M. Thompson (eds.). North Holland Publishing Company.
Knox, E.G. (1975b). Simulation Studies of Breast Cancer Screening Programmes. In: Probes for Health, G. McLachlan (ed.). Nuffield Provincial Hospital Trust, London.
May, D. (1974). Error Rates in Cervical Cytological Screening Tests. Br.J.Cancer 29, 106–113.
Shwartz, M. (1978). An Analysis of the Benefits of Serial Screening for Breast Cancer upon a Mathematical Model of the Disease. Cancer 41, 1550–1564.
Walton, R.J. c.s. (1976). Cervical cancer screening programs. CMA Journal 114: 1003–1033.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1979 Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Habbema, J.D.F., van Oortmarssen, G.J., van der Maas, P.J., de Jong, G.A. (1979). Prospective Evaluation of Cervical Cancer Screening in the Netherlands. In: van Eimeren, W., Neiß, A. (eds) Probleme einer systematischen Früherkennung. Medizinische Informatik und Statistik, vol 15. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-81367-2_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-81367-2_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-09560-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-81367-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive