Dynamic Systems Modelling
I have very much enjoyed the presentations of those who have already come before me. I had intended this morning to talk about some modelling work done in the area of commodities, but in response to the issues raised by Dr.Gazis last evening about the validation of models I think I will move to a slightly different aspect of our work, one which should permit a good deal of conversation about the role of modelling and the limitations imposed on the use of models through a lack of rigorous validation techniques. I have distributed two papers which have come from a programme of research in my group at MIT over the last two years. One paper talks very briefly about our methodology, the history of our group and the long-term research programme we have undertaken, while the second is a specific illustration of the application of our modelling techniques to an environmental problem that involves the flow of DDT through the environment. I will assume that all of you will have those papers and will be able to go over those in detail if you wish. So rather than simply repeating the information in those papers I would like to talk about several of the aspects of our approach which have occurred to me as being important in the context of this conference.
KeywordsPositive Feedback Loop Expert Judgment Demographic Transition Average Lifetime Behavioural Tendency
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