Advertisement

Computer Simulation of Investment Behavior in a Flood Plain

  • John P. Brown
Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 70)

Abstract

There is a large and growing body of literature describing experiments in computer simulation of river basins.1 The reasons for this lie in the vast complications of designing and operating a water resource system. The complexities are such that analytic methods have been insufficient to cope with the problem, but large-scale computers can be used to model the manifold possibilities and then run the model through a large number of histories and see which design and operating rules work best.

Keywords

Return Period Flood Plain Flood Damage Water Resource Research Flood Process 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arrow, Kenneth J., Aspects of the Theory of Risk-bearing, Yrjo Jahnsson Lectures, Helsinki, 1965.Google Scholar
  2. Arrow, Kenneth J., “Criteria for Social Investment,” Water Resources Research, 1, 1, 1965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arrow, Kenneth J. and Mordecai Kurz, Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy, Resources for the Future, Washington, 1970.Google Scholar
  4. Baumol, W. J., “On the Social Rate of Discount,” The American Economic Review, 58, 4, September, 1968, 788–802.Google Scholar
  5. Beckmann, Martin, Dynamic Programming of Economic Decisions, Berlin, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1968.Google Scholar
  6. Bellman, Richard, Dynamic Programming, Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation, 1956.Google Scholar
  7. Bhattacharjee, Manish C., “Optimal Investment in the Face of Floods,” Working Paper 259, Center for Research in Management Science, University of California, Berkeley, 1968.Google Scholar
  8. Bhavnagri, V. S. and G. Bugliarello, “Flood Proofing in a Flood Plain: A Stochastic Model,” Proceedings of American Society of Civil Engineers, 92,HY4, 63–76, July, 1966.Google Scholar
  9. Bhavnagri, V. S. and G. Bugliarello, “Mathematical Model of an Urban Flood Plain,” Proceedings of American Society of Civil Engineers, 91, HY2, 149–174, March, 1965.Google Scholar
  10. Blackwell, David, “Discounted Dynamic Programming,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 36, 226–235, 1965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Blackwell, David, “Positive Dynamic Programming,” Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. I, 415–418, Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1967.Google Scholar
  12. Borch, Karl, The Economics of Uncertainty, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958.Google Scholar
  13. Brown, John P., Bruno Contini, and C. B. McGuire, “An Economic Model of Flood Plain Land Use and Land Use Policy,” Water Resources Research, February, 1972.Google Scholar
  14. Buchlin, Stanley, Computer Programs for the Analysis of Complex Decision Problems, Harvard Business School, 1969.Google Scholar
  15. Burton, Ian, Types of Agricultural Occupance of Flood Plains in the United States, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 75, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962.Google Scholar
  16. Cord, Joel, “A Method for. Allocating Funds to Investment Projects when Returns are Subject to Uncertainty,” Management Science, 335–341, January, 1964.Google Scholar
  17. Cox, D. R. and P. A. W. Lewis, The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events, London: Methuen & Co., 1966.Google Scholar
  18. Eckstein, Otto, Water Resource Development: The Economics of Project Evaluation, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1958.Google Scholar
  19. Edwards, Ward and Amos Tversky, eds., Decision Making; Selected Readings, Baltimore: Penguin Books, 1967.Google Scholar
  20. Epstein, B., “Test for the Validity of the Assumption that the Underlying Distribution of Life is Exponential,” Technometrics, 2, 1, 1960, pp. 83–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fiering, Myron B., Stream-flow Synthesis, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1967.Google Scholar
  22. Gumbel, E. J., Statistics of Extremes, New York: Columbia University Press, 1958.Google Scholar
  23. Hirschleifer, Jack, “On the Theory of Optimal Investment Decisions,” Journal of Political Economy, 66, 1958, pp. 329–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hirschleifer, Jack, Disaster and Recovery: A Historical Survey, RAND Memo, RM-3079-PR, April, 1963.Google Scholar
  25. Homan, A. G. and Bruce Waybur, A Study of Procedure in Estimating Flood Damage to Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Properties in California, Menlo Park, California: Stanford Research Institute, 1960.Google Scholar
  26. Howard, Ronald A., Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Cambridge: M. I.T. Press, 1960.Google Scholar
  27. Hoyt, William G. and Walter B. Langbein, Floods, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1954.Google Scholar
  28. Hufschmidt, Maynard M. and Myron B. Fiering, Simulation Techniques for Design of Water-Resource Systems, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1966.Google Scholar
  29. Jorgenson, D. W., J. J. McCall, and R. Radner, Optimal Replacement Policy, Chicago: Rand-McNally; Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1967.Google Scholar
  30. Kates, Robert William, Hazard and Choice Perception in Flood Plain Management, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 78, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962.Google Scholar
  31. Koopmans, Tjalling C., Three Essays on the State of Economic Science, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1957.Google Scholar
  32. Koopmans, Tjalling C., “Stationary Ordinal Utility and Impatience,” Econometrica, 1960, 287–309.Google Scholar
  33. Krutilla, John V., “An Economic Approach to Coping with Flood Damage,” Water Resources Research, II, Second Quarter, 1966, 183–90.Google Scholar
  34. Krutilla, J. V. and Otto Eckstein, Multiple Purpose River Development, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1958.Google Scholar
  35. Loucks, Daniel P., et. al., Stochastic Methods for Analyzing River Basin Systems, Cornell University, Water Resources and Marine Sciences Center, Technical Report No. 16, August, 1969.Google Scholar
  36. Luce, R. Duncan and Howard Raiffa, Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957.Google Scholar
  37. Maass, Arthur, Maynard Hufschmidt, Robert Dorfman, Harold A. Thomas, Jr., Stephen A. Marglin, Gordon M. Fair, Design of Water-Resource Systems, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1962.Google Scholar
  38. Manne, Alan S., “Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions,” Management Science, April, 1960, 259–267.Google Scholar
  39. Marglin, S., “The Opportunity Cost of Public Investment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXVII, May, 1963.Google Scholar
  40. McCall, John J., “Maintenance Policies for Stochastically Failing Equipment: A Survey,” Management Science, 11, 5, March, 1965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Morey, Richard C., “Some Stochastic Properties of a Compound Renewal Damage Model,” Operations Research, September-October, 1966, pp. 902–908.Google Scholar
  42. Parikh, S. C., “Generalized Stochastic Programs with Deterministic Recourse,” Master’s Thesis, University of California, Berkeley, 1967.Google Scholar
  43. Pendleton, William C., “The Economics of Flood Plain Land Use Regulation,” unpublished manuscript, 1967.Google Scholar
  44. Raiffa, Howard, Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty, Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley, 1968.Google Scholar
  45. Raiffa, Howard and Robert Schlaifer, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Boston: Harvard Business School, 1961.Google Scholar
  46. Ramsey, Frank P., “Truth and Probability,” (1926), reprinted in The Foundation of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, Paterson, New Jersey: Littlefield, Adams,& Co., 1960.Google Scholar
  47. Savage, Leonard J., The Foundations of Statistics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1954.Google Scholar
  48. Scheaffer, John Richard, Flood Proofing: An Element in a Flood Damage Reduction Program, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 65, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960.Google Scholar
  49. Smith, Vernon L., “Depreciation, Market Valuations, and Investment Theory,” Management Science, 9, 4, July, 1963, pp. 690–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Strotz, Robert H., “The Use of Land Rent Charges to Measure the Welfare Benefits of Land Improvement,” Manuscript submitted to Resources for the Future, Inc., July, 1966 (Preliminary draft).Google Scholar
  51. United States Army, Corps of Engineers, Engineer District, San Francisco, California, Economic Impact Study of December, 1964 Floods in Northern California Coastal Streams, San Francisco, 1967.Google Scholar
  52. United States Army, Corps of Engineers, Engineer District, San Francisco, California, Report on Floods of December, 1964 in Northern California Coastal Streams, in three volumes, San Francisco, 1965.Google Scholar
  53. U. S. Congress, House, Public Works Committee, Disaster Relief Act of 1965, Hearings, 89th Congress, First Session, Parts I and II, 1965.Google Scholar
  54. U. S. Congress, House, Study of Federal Financial Assistance to Natural Disaster Victims, Report of the House Committee on Banking and Currency, 89th Congress, First Session, H. Rept. 632, 1965.Google Scholar
  55. U. S. Congress, House, Unified National Program for Managing Flood Losses: Report of the Task Force on Federal Flood Control Policy, House Document, 89th Congress, No. 465, 1966.Google Scholar
  56. U. S. Congress, Senate, Federal Disaster Insurance, Report of the Committee on Banking and Currency, 84th Congress, Second Session, Senate Report No. 1313, 1956.Google Scholar
  57. U. S. Congress, Senate, Banking and Currency Committee, Insurance and Other Programs for Financial Assistance to Flood Victims, 89th Congress, Second Session, 1966.Google Scholar
  58. U. S. Congress, Senate, Policies, Standards, and Procedures in the Formulation, Evaluation, and Review of Plans for Use and Development of Water and Related Land Resources, Report by the President’s Water Resources Council, 87th Congress, Second Session, S. Doc. No. 97, May 29, 1952.Google Scholar
  59. United States Inter-Agency Committee on Water Resources, Subcommittee on Evaluation Standards, Proposed Practices for Economic Analysis of River Basin Projects, Revised Report, Washington, D. C., May, 1958.Google Scholar
  60. United States Water Resources Council, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies,” 1025 Vermont Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C., 1967.Google Scholar
  61. University of California, Agricultural Extension Service, An Economic and Water Use Study for Nine Northeastern California Counties, Redding, California, Northern California County Supervisors Association, 1964.Google Scholar
  62. Van Dantzig, D., “Economic Decision Problems of Flood Prevention,” Econometrica, 24, 3, July, 1956.Google Scholar
  63. Von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern, The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Second Edition, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1947.Google Scholar
  64. White, Gilbert F., et. al., Changes in Urban Occupance of Flood Plains in the United States, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 57, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1958.Google Scholar
  65. White, Gilbert F. (ed.), Papers on Flood Problems, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 70, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1961.Google Scholar
  66. White, Gilbert F., Choice of Adjustment to Floods, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 93, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1964.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg 1972

Authors and Affiliations

  • John P. Brown
    • 1
  1. 1.Dept. of EconomicsBrown UniversityProvidenceUSA

Personalised recommendations