Scenario Analysis with BASICS

—Testing the Representativity of the Results of the Dynamic Probability Adjustment of Scenario Components with the Help of Classification Methods—
  • M. Missler-Behr
Conference paper
Part of the Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization book series (STUDIES CLASS)


In scenario analysis representative and meaningful scenarios can be obtained with the help of branch-and-bound algorithms, equation systems as well as optimization and simulation models. The computer program BASICS simulates scenarios by a stepwise probability adjustment of scenario components. BASICS uses a rational function for adjusting. Here the question arises why this special kind of adjustment function is chosen. We additionally use similar but easier adjustment functions, compare the results and use cluster analysis to test the representativity of the total scenario space.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Missler-Behr
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut für Statistik und Mathematische WirtschaftstheorieUniversität AugsburgAugsburgGermany

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