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Scenario Analysis with BASICS

—Testing the Representativity of the Results of the Dynamic Probability Adjustment of Scenario Components with the Help of Classification Methods—
  • M. Missler-Behr
Conference paper
Part of the Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization book series (STUDIES CLASS)

Summary

In scenario analysis representative and meaningful scenarios can be obtained with the help of branch-and-bound algorithms, equation systems as well as optimization and simulation models. The computer program BASICS simulates scenarios by a stepwise probability adjustment of scenario components. BASICS uses a rational function for adjusting. Here the question arises why this special kind of adjustment function is chosen. We additionally use similar but easier adjustment functions, compare the results and use cluster analysis to test the representativity of the total scenario space.

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References

  1. Honton, E.J., Stacey, G.S. and Millett S.M. (1984): Futures Scenarios: The BASICS Computational Method. Economics and Policy Analysis Occasional Paper, No. 4, Battelle-Institute, Columbus/Ohio. Google Scholar
  2. Missler-Behr, M. (1993): Methoden der Szenarioanalyse. DUV, Wiesbaden.Google Scholar
  3. Opitz, O., Missler-Behr, M. (1993): Klassifikationsverfahren in der Szenarioanalyse. In: Niedereichholz, J. and Schuhmann, W. (eds.): Wirtschaftsinformatik — Beiträge zur modernen Unternehmensführung. Campus, Frankfurt/Main, New York, 240–256.Google Scholar
  4. Reibnitz, U. von (1991): Szenario-Technik: Instrumente für die unternehmerische und persönliche Erfolgsplanung. Gabler, Wiesbaden.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Missler-Behr
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut für Statistik und Mathematische WirtschaftstheorieUniversität AugsburgAugsburgGermany

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