Abstract
For a generalized mathematical model of the pelagic compartment of a lake ecosystem we show that a small variance in input parameters may result in a large variance in predicted biomasses. Since input parameters for this kind of models always show a great variance, we conclude that deterministic prediction of biomass-trajectories is rather useless and demonstrate how stochastic analysis of the model may lead to a helpful risk analysis.
Zusammenfassung
An einem einfachen Modell für das Pelagial eines Sees zeigen wir, daß bereits geringe Änderungen in den Eingangsparametern zu beträchtlichen Änderungen bei den prognostizierten Biomassen führen können. Da die Eingangsparameter für solche Modelle jedoch stets eine große Streuung aufweisen, schließen wir, daß deterministische Voraussagen für derartige Systeme zwecklos sind und demonstrieren, daß eine stochastische Analyse einer großen Zahl von Monte-Carlo Simulationen die geeignete Form einer Risiko-Analyse für solche Systeme sein kann.
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© 1991 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Poethke, H.J., Oertel, D., Seitz, A. (1991). Risk Assessment of Toxicants to Pelagic Food-Webs: A Simulation Study. In: Möller, D.P.F., Richter, O. (eds) Analyse dynamischer Systeme in Medizin, Biologie und Ökologie. Informatik-Fachberichte, vol 275. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77020-3_24
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77020-3_24
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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