Abstract
Risk-cost analysis can be used as a management tool to help determine which water resource management alternatives best satisfy both ecological and economic concerns. However, risk and cost assessments are often associated with very large uncertainties stemming from such factors as contaminant transport modelling and loss function assessment. If risk-cost analysis is conducted without considering these uncertainties, inappropriate management policies may result. On the other hand, considering these uncertainties may cause difficulties in decision making if they make management alternatives effectively indistinguishable. Disposal of contaminated dredged material is a water resource problem where both risks and costs are important considerations. Risks from disposal of contaminated dredged material may be reduced by incorporating measures to confine the contaminated dredged material; however, these confinement measures may increase disposal costs significantly.
Composite programming, a multicriterion decision making (MCDM) method, is used to trade off the risks to humans and ecological species and costs for a range of disposal alternatives. The composite programming algorithm makes it possible to encode uncertainties by means of fuzzy set membership functions. The final risk-cost trade-off distance for each management option is computed as a fuzzy number allowing the management options with their associated uncertainties to be compared and ranked.
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Stansbury, J., Bogardi, I., Kelly, W.E. (1991). Risk-Cost Analysis Under Uncertainty of the Disposal of Contaminated Dredged Material. In: Ganoulis, J. (eds) Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment. NATO ASI Series, vol 29. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76971-9_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76971-9_16
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