Abstract
The current state of El Nino simulation using air-sea coupled models is described. The first part is the excerpts from the report on Trieste Long-Range Forecast Conference in April 1991, confining only to “Simple model approach to ENSO.” The second part is the report on the progress of coupled GCMs for 5 ~ 30 years integration, focusing on the El Nino phenomenon. The intense efforts on the construction of viable coupled models is being continued. A number of groups are struggling for the reproduction of El Nino events in their coupled models, expending considerable efforts and juggling various parameters relevant to the air-sea interaction. The criterion for the validity of the model is first whether the annual cycle can be simulated in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and secondly whether the ENSO signature can be produced. Overall, an appreciable amount of systematic errors have been noticed in the SST (sea surface temperature) distribution. Fortunately the light on the other side of the tunnel may be within sight. It is suggested that the appropriate surface wind stress and cumulus convection in the equatorial zone are crucial elements for satisfying the criterion. As Neelin et al. (1992) noted, the balance between the equatorial surface wind and the upwelling cold water at the eastern Pacific is critical. If one of them is excessively large or weak, the observed variability of SST would not be produced. This paper discusses a possible cause with the spectral atmospheric GCM that is responsible for generating spurious southerly trades.
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© 1993 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Miyakoda, K., Rosati, A., Gudgel, R. (1993). Toward the GCM El Niño Simulation. In: Shukla, J. (eds) Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series, vol 6. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76960-3_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76960-3_7
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