Heuristic Models

Abstract

In this chapter we examine three different “heuristic uncertainty models”. The characteristic feature of heuristic models is that their mathematical foundations are not or only incompletely led back to some sound theory — as given by probability theory, for instance. This is because heuristic approaches aim at avoiding certain “problems” arising from the use of, e.g., probability theory. The reasons that are often mentioned in this context are the amount of data needed (prior and conditional probabilities, joint probability distributions, etc.), the inability to distinguish between absence of belief and doubt, and that it is impossible to represent ignorance.