In the first part (that is in Section 3.1) all parameters of the theory, which directly relate to the migration process, are estimated by comparison with empirical data. The explicit form of the probability transition rates consisting of mobilities and utilities turn out to be functions of the regions involved and of time.
The intention of the second part (see Section 3.2) is to provide insights into the dependence of the migratory process on socio-economic key-factors. Of course it is well-known that it is difficult if not impossible to establish a direct and unique causal relationship between the socio-economic situation and migratory dynamics. Instead we expect that many influences merge with different intensities in producing the migratory behaviour. Therefore we take the degree of the regional and temporal correlation between the socio-economic variables and the migratory variables as an indirect measure of their relevance in generating or influencing migration. In particular the correlation of certain key-factors with the utility function u i (t) and with the global mobility v0 (t) will be determined and simul-taneously a method of ranking their relevance will be introduced.
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- 3.2Sen, A. (1986) Estimation of Parameters for the Poisson Gravity Model, Proceedings of “The Seventh European Advanced Summer Institute in Regional Science”, Umea, June 9–27, 1986Google Scholar