Skip to main content

Rating the Risks: The Structure Of Expert And Lay Perceptions

  • Conference paper

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASIG,volume 4))

Abstract

People respond to the hazards they perceive. If their perceptions are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to be misdirected. In order to improve hazard management, a risk assessment industry has developed over the last decade which combines the efforts of physical, biological, and social scientists in an attempt to identify hazards and measure the frequency and magnitude of their consequences (1).

Reprinted by permission from Environmnent, vol. 21 (April 1979)

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. C.H. Green, “Risk: Attitudes and Beliefs,” in Behavior in Fires, ed. D.V. Canter (Wiley, New York, in press)

    Google Scholar 

  2. R.W. Kates, Risk Assessment of Environmental Hazard (Wiley, New York, 1978)

    Google Scholar 

  3. H.J. Otway, D. Maurer, and K. Thomas. “Nuclear Power: The Question of Public Acceptance,” Futures, 10 (April, 1978), 109–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ” Science, 185 (1974), 1124–1131.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology, 4 (1973), 207–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. S. Lichtenstein, P. Slovic, B. Fischhoff, M. Layman, and B. Combs, “Judged Frequency of Lethal Events. ” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4 (1978), 551–578.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. B. Fischhoff, P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, “Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation, ” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4 (1978), 342–355.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. B. Fischhoff, P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, “Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence, ” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3 (1977), 552–564.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and L.D. Phillips, “Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art,” Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs, ed. H. Jungermann and G. de Zeeuw ( D. Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1977 ).

    Google Scholar 

  10. M. Hynes and E. Vanmarcke, “Reliability of Embankment Performance Predictions,” Proceedings of the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Division Specialty Conference ( University of Waterloo Press, Waterloo, Ont., 1976 ).

    Google Scholar 

  11. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants (WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014); Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  12. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Risk Assessment Review Group. Risk Assessment Review Group Report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG/CR-0400; Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Washington. DC. 1978 ).

    Google Scholar 

  13. U.S. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Conservation, Energy, and Natural Resources. Teton Dam Disaster: Hearings… (94th Cong., 2d sess.; Government Printing Office. Washington. DC. 1976 ).

    Google Scholar 

  14. R.W. Kates. Hazard and Choice Perception in Flood Plain Management (Research Paper. 78; Department of Geography. University of Chicago. Chicago. IL. 1962 ).

    Google Scholar 

  15. K. Borch. The Economics of Uncertainty (Princeton University Press. Princeton. NJ, 1968 ).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Doubts Linger on Cyclamate Risks.” Eugene Register-Guard. 14 January 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  17. E.E. David, “One-Armed Scientists?,” Science, 189 (1975) 891.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. B. Fischhoff, P. Slovic. S. Lichtenstein. S. Read, and B. Combs. “How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes towards Technological Risks and Benefits,” Policy Sciences. 8 (1978), 127–152; P. Slovic, B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein, “Expressed Preferences,” unpublished manuscript ( Decision Research, Eugene, OR, 1978 ).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. The correlations between perceived risk and the annual frequencies of death were.92 for the experts and.62,.50, and.56 for the League of Women Voters, students, and Active Club samples, respectively.

    Google Scholar 

  20. W. Lowrance. Of Acceptable Risk ( William Kaufman. Los Altos, CA. 1976 ).

    Google Scholar 

  21. The multiple correlation between the risk judgments of the LOWV members and students and a linear combination of their fatality estimates, disaster multipliers, dread ratings, and severity ratings was.95.

    Google Scholar 

  22. A secondary finding was that both experts and lay persons believed that the risks from most of the activities were better known to science than to the individuals at risk. The experts believed that the discrepancy in knowledge was particularly great for vaccinations. X-rays, antibiotics, alcohol, and home appliances. The only activities whose risks were judged better known to those exposed were mountain climbing, fire fighting, hunting, skiing, and police work.

    Google Scholar 

  23. L. Ross. “The Intuitive Psychologist and His Shortcomings.” Advances in Social Psychology, ed. L. Berkowitz ( Academic Press. New York. NY. 1977 ).

    Google Scholar 

  24. A.E. Green and A.J. Bourne, Reliability Technology (Wiley Interscience. New York. NY. 1972 ).

    Google Scholar 

  25. D. Nelkin. “The Role of Experts on a Nuclear Siting Controversy.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 30 (1974). 29–36.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1985 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S. (1985). Rating the Risks: The Structure Of Expert And Lay Perceptions. In: Covello, V.T., Mumpower, J.L., Stallen, P.J.M., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis. NATO ASI Series, vol 4. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_7

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-70636-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-70634-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics