Abstract
The word Delphi refers to the hallowed site of the most revered oracle in ancient Greece. Legend has it that the earth goddess Gaia long ago inhabited this site and was protected by the dragon Pythos. Apollo, the son of Zeus and Leto, slew the dragon and made himself master of Delphi. He was famous throughout Greece not only for his beauty, but also for his ability to foresee the future. The home Apollo chose for himself was located 170 kilometers northwest of Athens on the slopes of Mount Parnassus and in sight of the Gulf of Corinth. The impressive site served not only as an oracular center but also as a kind of art museum. Every important event of Greek history was immortalized there by painting and sculpture. Those who sought to consult the Oracle brought gifts, thereby making Delphi one of the richest and most influential locales in Greece. Forecasts were transmitted from Apollo through intermediaries, women known as Pythia. The focal point for the activity was an inner sanctum of the temple built over a geologic fault through which fumes escaped. These fumes were instrumental in transporting the Pythia into a trance, and their utterances were then interpreted by priests for the petitioners.
Keywords
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
Excerpted from: Handbook of Futures Research, edited by Jib Fowles; Greenwood Press, Westport, CT, and London, England.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adelson, A. and S. Aroni, 1975. “Differential Images of the Future.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 433–462.
Bender, A.D., A.E. Strack, T.W. Ebright, and G. VonHaunalter, 1969. “A Delphic Study of the Future of Medicine.” Philadelphia: Smith Kline & French Laboratories.
Coates, J.F., 1975. “Review of Sackman Report.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 7, Number 2, pp. 193–194.
Dalkey, N. and O. Helmer, 1963. “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts.” Management Science, Volume 9, Number 3, p. 458.
Dalkey, N., B. Brown, and S.W. Cochran, 1969. The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings to Improve Group Estimates. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.
Day, L.H., 1975. “Delphi Research in the Corporate Environment.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 168–194.
Forrester, J., 1971. World Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.: Wright-Allen Press (particularly Chapters 5 and 6).
Goldstein, N., 1975. “A Delphi on the Future of the Steel and Ferroalloy Industries.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Technigues and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 210–226.
Gordon, T.J. and H. Hayward, 1968. “Initial Experiments for the Cross-Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting.” Futures, Volume 1, Number 2, pp. 100–116.
Gordon, T.J. and O. Helmer, 1964. “Report on a Long Range Forecasting Study.” RAND Paper P-2982, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.
Helmer, O., 1972. “On the Future State of the Union.” Report R-27. Menlo Park, Calif.: Institute for the Future.
Jillson, I.A., 1975. “The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 124–159.
Kane, J., 1975. “A Primer for a New Cross-Impact Language—KSIM.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 369–382.
Linstone, H.A. and M. Turoff (eds.), 1975. The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
Ludlow, J., 1975. “Delphi Inquiries and Knowledge Utilization.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 102–123.
Mulgrave, N.W. and A.J. Ducanis, 1975. “Propensity to Change Responses in a Delphi Round as a Function of Dogmatism.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading. Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 288–290.
Sackman, H., 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process.” R-1283-PR. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.
Salancik, J.R., 1973. “Assimilation of Aggregated Inputs into Delphi Forecasts: A Regression Analysis.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 5, Number 3, pp. 243–248.
Salancik, J.R., W. Wenger, and E. Heifer. 1971. “The Construction of Delphi Event Statements.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 3, Number 1. pp. 65–73.
Scheibe, M., M. Skutsch, and J. Schofer, 1975. “Experiments in Delphi Methodology.” In H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., pp. 262–287.
“TRW’s Probe of the Future,” 1969. 14 Volumes. Redondo Beach, Calif.: TRW Corporation.
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman, 1974. “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science (September 27), pp. 1124–1131.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1985 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Linstone, H.A. (1985). The Delphi Technique. In: Covello, V.T., Mumpower, J.L., Stallen, P.J.M., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis. NATO ASI Series, vol 4. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_22
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_22
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-70636-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-70634-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive