Abstract
When the Board of the German Historians’ Association asked me to give the concluding lecture on the world economy in the twentieth century at its congress I had to find a way of making at least a few conclusive and well-founded remarks on this vast subject within the space of one hour.
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References
Andreas Predöhl: Das Ende der Weltwirtschaftskrise. Eine Einführung in die Probleme der Weltwirtschaft. Reinbek b. Hamburg, 1962, p.10.
Predöhl, p.11.
P. Lamartine Yates: Forty Years of Foreign Trade. A Statistical Handbook with Special Reference to Primary Products and Underdeveloped Countries. London, 1959, p.32f.;
A.G. Kenwood and A.L. Lougheed: The Growth of the International Economy, 1820–1960. An Introductory Text. London, 1971, p.224; United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1975, p.438.
Yates: p.37, Table 9. Kenwood and Lougheed: p.287, Table 23; United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.55.
Kenwood and Lougheed: p.102f.
Kenwood and Lougheed, p.171; League of Nations: Industrialisation and Foreign Trade. Geneva, 1945.
And: United Nations: Relative Prices of Exports and Imports of Under-developed Countries. New York, 1949;
William Arthur Lewis: Economic Survey 1919–1939. London, 1949;
Charles Kindleberger: The Terms of Trade. A European Case Study. Boston and New York, 1956.
For a critical summary see Paul Bairoch: The Economic Development of the Third World since 1900. London, 1975.
League of Nations: Industrialisation and Foreign Trade, p.12ff.; Derek H. Aldcroft: Die Zwanziger Jahre. Von Versailles zur Wall Street 1919–1929 (Geschichte der Weltwirtschaft im 20. Jahrhundert, ed. Wolfram Fischer, Vol. 3), Munich, 1978, p.337, Table 15.
Derek H. Aldcroft: Die Zwanziger Jahre. Von Versailles zur Wall Street 1919–1929 (Geschichte der Weltwirtschaft im 20. Jahrhundert, ed. Wolfram Fischer, Vol. 3), Munich, 1978, p.337. As neither Switzerland nor Holland nor Norway nor Spain and Portugal are included in these statistics on the core, the share is actually higher.
Wladimir S. Woytinsky and Emma S. Woytinsky: World Population and Production. New York, 1953, p.1005.
United Nations: Statistical Yearbook, 1962, p.143ff.; 1963, p.312ff.; 1975, p.48ff. and 186ff.
Woytinsky and Woytinsky: p.455.
ibid., p.321 and 457.
L.J. Zimmermann: The Distribution of World Income 1860–1960. In: Egbert de Vries (ed.): Essays on Unbalanced Growth. A Century of Disparity and Convergence. ’S-Gravenhage. 1962, p.37 and 52ff.
Knut Borchardt: Trend, Zyklus, Struktureinbrüche, Zufälle: Was bestimmt die deutsche Wirtschaftsgeschichte des 20.Jahrhunderts? in: Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte 64 (1977), p.145–178.
Cf. also Dietmar Petzina: Krisen gestern und heute — die Rezession von 1974/75 und die Erfahrungen der Weltwirtschaftskrise (Vortragsreihe der Gesellschaft für Westfälische Wirtschaftsgeschichte H.21), Dortmund, 1977.
For Europe altogether: Ingvar Svennilsson: Growth and Stagnation in the European Economy. Geneva, 1954.
There is a great deal of literature on Great Britain, from which I have selected only one which has solid empirical proof: Derek H. Aldcroft: The Inter-War Economy: Britain 1919–1939. London, 1970. Aldcroft discusses this question in a broader context in Vol.7 of the world economic history of the twentieth century quoted in Note 7. On S. E. Europe see esp. p.134ff. Vol.6 of the Handbuch der Europäischen Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte (Stuttgart Klett-Cotta as from 1979) will discuss this in detail. The chapters on S.E. Europe are by Berend and Ranki (Budapest).
Simon Kuznets: Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread. New Haven and London, 1966;
Simon Kuznets: Economic Growth of Nations. Total Output and Production and Production Structure. Cambridge, Mass., 1971.
N.G. Butlin: Australian Domestic Product: Investment and Foreign Borrowing, 1861–1939. Cambridge, 1962, esp. pp.7 and 33;
C. Foster (ed.): Australian Economic Development in the Twentieth Century. London, 1970, esp. Chaps. 2, 5 and 6; Aldcroft: Die Zwanziger Jahre, p.326ff.
Aldcroft: Die Zwanziger Jahre. Von Versailles zur Wall Street, 1919–1929, p.327, Table 11.
The importance of the war economy for the upswing in the USA and elsewhere has been convincingly shown: Alan S. Milward: Der Zweite Weltkrieg. Krieg, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 1939–1945. (Geschichte der Weltwirtschaft im 20. Jahrhundert, Vol. 5), Munich, 1977, esp. Chap.3.
United Nations: Statistical Yearbook, 1969, p.550ff.; 1972, p.613ff.; 1975, p.684ff. See also Kenwood and Lougheed, p.290ff.;
Angus Maddison: Economic Growth in the West. London, 1964, p.29;
Angus Maddison: Die neuen Großmächte. Der wirtschaftliche Aufschwung Japans und der Sowjetunion. Bergisch-Gladbach, 1969, p.93.
According to Lewis this was 1.2% on a yearly average for the industrial core countries (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France) in 1880–1910 and 1.15% in 1957–69 (W.A. Lewis: Growth and Fluctuations 1870–1913, p.136).
In Europe it had been below 1% since 1950 (United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1969, p.XXVII, 1976, p.8.
The slow-down in growth rates predicted by the model, however, is only apparent in some countries, e.g. The Federal Republic of Germany and Sweden. In the case of the USA and Canada or Belgium for instance, it cannot be established. See U.N.: Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.676ff.
Gerhard Mensch and Reinhard Schnopp: Stalemate in Technology, 1925–1935. Internationales Institut für Management und Verwaltung, discussion papers 1977. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, is an interesting attempt to do this.
See also Gerhard Mensch: Das Technologische Patt. Frankfurt, 1975.
According to Kenwood and Lougheed, p.86, the average annual growth rate in production was 2.1% between 1870 and 1914, while that of world trade was 3.4%. According to Yates, p.31, the index of world exports in 1911/13 was 139 and for industrial production 378 (Base year 1876/80).
Alfred Marshall: Principles of Economics, 8th edition, reprint London 1959, p.255.
The major advocate of this theory was the American Alvin Hansen. It is opposed i.a. by F. Hil-gerdt in the “Summary of Findings” in his pioneering study for the League of Nations: Industrialization and Foreign Trade, pp.116–120, but this did not appear until 1945.
Kenwood and Lougheed, p.285.
Detlef Lorenz: Weltwirtschaft zwischen Arbeitsteilung und Abkoppelung, in: Konjunkturpolitik. Zeitschrift für angewandte Konjunkturforschung 23 (1977), pp.196–215. This also gives further relevant titles.
The basic formulation of this theory is in Râul Prebish: The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems. New York, 1950.
Paul Bairoch: The Economic Development of the Third World since 1900. London, 1975, p.108.
In 1974 Kuwait had a national per capita income of 11,063 US dollars, Switzerland 6,790, Sweden 6,153, the USA 5,923, Canada 5,840 and the Federal Republic of Germany 5,480 (United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.689–691).
Bairoch, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.192.
Calculated from the Statistisches Jahrbuch 1978 for the Federal Republic of Germany (international surveys), p.6.10–612 (population in 1977) and United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1976 (growth rates 1965–1975).
A.E. Wrigley: Bevölkerungsstruktur im Wandel. Methoden und Ergebnisse der Demographie. Munich, 1968, p.71.
United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.79ff.
United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.79–82. Nigeria is the most densely populated country in Africa and babies born there in the first half of the 1970s had a life expectancy of 37 years. In comparison, in Europe the life expectancy for men was at the same time over 65 in every country except Albania, for women, again with the exception of Albania, over 70. In the Scandinavian countries, for example, it was 77.
Bairoch, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.33, Table 9 and p.42.
Bairoch, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.39.
Calculated from Angus Maddison: Die neuen Großmächte. Der wirtschaftliche Aufstieg Japans und der Sowjetunion., p.96, Table 14.
United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.209–216.
Bairoch, Statistical Yearbook, 1976, p.99, Table 31.
W. Arthur Lewis: Growth and Fluctuations 1870–1913. London, 1978, p.226f.
Statistisches Jahrbuch, Federal Republic of Germany, 1976, p.626f.
The most comprehensive survey on Asian problems is still that in Gunnar Myrdal: Asian Drama. An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations. 2 vols., New York, 1968, although the data is naturally now old.
In Germany i.a. Dieter Senghaas: Weltwirtschaftsordnung und Entwicklungspolitik. Plädoyer für Dissoziation. Frankfurt/M., 1977.
More differentiated is e.g. Mahbub Ul Haq: The Poverty Curtain. Choices for the Third World. New York, 1976.
This refers to the lecture given by the president of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, H. Maier-Leibnitz, at the Historians’ Congress, on the subject: Einflüsse der Naturwissenschaft im 18. und 19. Jahrhundert.
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Fischer, W. (1981). The World Economy in the 20th Century-Continuity and Change. In: Engels, W., Pohl, H. (eds) German Yearbook on Business History 1981. German Yearbook on Business History 1981, vol 1981. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-68372-5_6
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