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Empirische Makroökonomik

  • Chapter
Springers Handbuch der Volkswirtschaftslehre 1

Zusammenfassung

Die empirische Makroökonomik hat sich in den letzten 15 Jahren stark gewandelt. Dieser Sachverhalt kann am einfachsten ersichtlich gemacht werden, wenn wir uns den ökonometrischen Rahmen empirischer, makroökonomischer Analysen der 60er und 70er Jahre in Erinnerung rufen. Die damaligen Untersuchungen wurden in der Regel im Rahmen struktureller Modelle durchgeführt. Dabei wurden spezifische, makroökonomische Hypothesen im Rahmen einzelner Verhaltensgleichungen separat überprüft und entsprechende Modelle mit Niveauzeitreihen geschätzt. Mit den zu einem Gesamtmodell zusammengefügten Einzelgleichungen wurden dann dynamische Multiplikatoren berechnet, die die Reaktion der endogenen Größen auf Veränderungen der exogenen Variablen aufzeigten. Die in diesem Zusammenhang konstruierten Modelle waren zum Teil sehr komplex, d. h. sie umfaßten viele Gleichungen mit nichtlinearen Verknüpfungen der Variablen. Derartige Analysen sind in der akademischen Literatur zur empirischen Makroökonomik heute kaum mehr anzutreffen. An die Stelle von Regressionsgleichungen mit einer bestimmten Kausalinterpretation sind oft Gleichgewichtsbeziehungen aus intertemporalen Optimierungsbedingungen (sogenannte Eulergleichungen) getreten. So wird beispielsweise nicht mehr eine Konsumfunktion, sondern eine aus der intertemporalen Nutzenmaximierung der Haushalte sich ergebende Beziehung zwischen laufendem und verzögertem Konsum sowie Realzinssatz geschätzt. Als eine erste Anwendung dieses Ansatzes ist die Arbeit von R. E. Hall (1978) zu erwähnen.

Der Verfasser dankt den Herausgebern, einem anonymen Gutachter sowie C. T. Hsu für wertvolle Hinweise und Kommentare.

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Authors
  1. Peter Kugler
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftspolitik Fakultät für VWL, Universität Mannheim, Seminargebäude A5, D-68131, Mannheim, Germany

    Jürgen von Hagen

  2. Fakultät für VWL, Universität Mannheim, Seminargebäude A5, D-68131, Mannheim, Germany

    Axel Börsch-Supan Ph. D. (Lehrstuhl für Makroökonomik und Wirtschaftspolitik) (Lehrstuhl für Makroökonomik und Wirtschaftspolitik)

  3. Wirtschafts- u. Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät Lehrstuhl Wirtschaftspolitik/Internat. Wirtschaftsbeziehungen und Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Universität Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89, D-14482, Potsdam, Germany

    Paul J. J. Welfens

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Kugler, P. (1996). Empirische Makroökonomik. In: von Hagen, J., Börsch-Supan, A., Welfens, P.J.J. (eds) Springers Handbuch der Volkswirtschaftslehre 1. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61466-8_9

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