Water resources monitoring in the Aral Sea basin

Abstract

Scientists, and climatologists in particular, tend to ascribe the causes for the lowering of the Aral Sea level, degradation of the environment, and the ecological disaster to the lake itself. However, climatic change may also be a long-term cause for the drop in water-level: a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evaporation. But, if this were so, then the unprecedented rise in water-level in the Caspian Sea cannot be explained. Climate change could be a contributory factor, especially at the local scale, but the main causes must be sought in the response of the entire basin of the Aral Sea to anthropogenically induced changes; thus, the Arral Sea has become a ‘man-made lake’. The solution to the problem lies in the study of the production of water in the snows and glaciers of the mountains of the upper catchment of the Syr Dar’ya and Amu Dar’ya, and in the manner in which this water is used and managed by people before it flows into the Aral Sea in rivers and subsurface flow. In short, only by monitoring and understanding the water balance of the entire basin can the region achieve sustainable development and the lake be saved.