Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Future of Climate: Potential for Interaction and Surprises

  • Conference paper
Climate Change and World Food Security

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASII,volume 37))

Abstract

Surprises, by the very definition of the word, deal with unforeseen aspects of an issue. In the context of global warming, nearly all assessments recognise a wide range of uncertainty owing to a variety of processes that are not yet fully quantifiable, such as the feedback effects of clouds, soil organic matter changes, photosynthetic enhancement, changes in species composition or populations and alterations in the extent of snow and ice fields with climate changes. These feedback mechanisms could amplify or damp by up to several times projections made using preliminary calculations that neglect their proper interaction. Such assessments try to estimate these uncertainties and typically have suggested that if carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent in methane, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxides etc.) were to double and be held fixed indefinitely (i.e. an ‘equilibrium’ experiment), then globally-averaged surface air temperatures would rise by about 1.5–4.5°C (Table 1) (National Academy of Sciences, 1978, 1987; Houghton et al., 1990, 1992). This canonical range reflects the best estimate of the subjective judgements (i.e. intuition) of broad cross-sections of knowledgeable scientists across a wide range of institutions over the uncertainties associated with these feedback processes. They are not surprises, strictly speaking, as variation within this range is anticipated, even though we cannot assign more than subjective or intuitive probability as to whether the actual climatic sensitivity to equilibrium C02 doubling would be nearer the higher or lower end of the range. Scientific intuition and some calculations have even suggested a modest chance (perhaps 10 per cent) for temperature warming above the upper 4.5°C limit or below the 1.5°C lower limit (Jager, 1987) — and this would constitute a ‘surprise’, as most of the knowledgeable scientific community consider it much more probable that the actual sensitivity will turn out within the canonical 1.5–4.5°C range

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Barron, E.J. and Hecht, A.D. (eds.) (1985). Historical and Paleoclimatic Analysis and Modeling. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger, W.H. and Labeyrie, L. (eds.) (1987). Abrupt Climatic Change. NATO/NSF Workshop, Reidel, Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berner, R.A. (1991). A model for atmospheric C02 over phanerozoic time. American Journal of Science, 291: 339–376.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretherton, F. (1986). Earth System Science. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC. pp 24–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Broecker, W. S. and Denton, G. H. (1989). The role of ocean-atmosphere reorganizations in glacial cycles. Geochim. Cosmochin. Acta, 53: 2465–2501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broecker, W.S., Peteet, D. and Rind, D. (1985). Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation? Nature, 365: 21–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charlson, R.J., Langner, J., Rodhe, H., Leovy, C.B., and Warren, S.G. (1991). Perturbation of the northern hemisphere radiative balance by backscattering from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Tellus, 43: 152–163.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, R.S. (1981). Interdisciplinary research and integration: The case of C02 and climate. Climatic Change, 3 (4): 429–448.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, R.S. and Kates, R.W. (1994). Climate change and world food security. Global Environmental Change, 4 (1): 3–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • COHMAP members (1988). Climatic change of the last 18,000 years: observations and model simulations. Science, 241: 1043–1052.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crosson, P. and Anderson, R.A. (1992). Resources and Global Food Prospects, Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030. World Bank Technical Paper Number 184. World Bank, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daily, G. and Ehrlich, P. (1992). Population sustainability and earth carrying capacity. Bioscience, 42 (10): 761–771.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daly, H.E. (1991). Ecological economics and sustainable development. In: Rossi, C. and Tiezzi, E. (eds.) Ecological Physical Chemistry, Proceedings of an International Workshop. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 185–201.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, M.B. (1988). Ecological systems and dynamics. In: Toward an Understanding of Global Change. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dobson, A. and Carper, R. (1992). Global warming and potential changes in host-parasite and disease-vector relationships. In: Peters, R. and Lovejoy, T. (eds.) Global Warming and Biological Diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, pp. 201–214.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehleringer, J.P. and Field, C.B. (eds.) (1993). Scaling Physiological Processes: Leaf to Globe. Academic Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, P., Ehrlich, A. and Holdren, J. (1977). Ecoscience Population, Resources, Environment. W. H. Freeman Press, San Francisco, California.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elsaesser, H.W. (1991). Comment on ’The global warming debate heats up: an analysis and perspective by S. H. Schneider’. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 72: 1009.

    Google Scholar 

  • GRIP (Greenland Ice-Core Project) members (1993). Climate instability during the last interglacial period recorded in the GRIP ice core. Nature, 364: 203–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S, Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G. (1981). Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213: 957–966.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann, K. (1979). On the problem of multiple time scales in climate modeling. In: Bach, W., Pankrath, J. and Kellogg, W. (eds.) Man’s Impact on Climate. Elsevier, New York. pp. 43–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C.S. (1986). The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change. In: Clark, W.C. and Munn, RE. (eds.) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J.T., Callender, B.A. and Varney, S.K. (eds.) (1992). Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraum, J.J. (eds.) (1990). Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Idso, S.B. (1991). The aerial fertilization effect of C02 and its implications for global carbon cycling and maximum greenhouse warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 72(7): 962.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (1995). Second Assessment of Working Group /. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • IBGP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) (1991). A Study of Global Change (IGBP). IGBP Press, Stockholm.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jager,J.(1987).Developing policies for responding to climatic change. A summary of the discussion and recommendations of the workshops held in Villach 28 September to 2 October 1987. WCIP-1,WMO/TD-No. 225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansson, T.B., Kelly, H., Reddy, A.K.N, and Williams, R.H. (eds.) (1993). Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity. Island Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnsen, S.J., Clausen, H.B., Dansgaard, W., Fuhrer, K., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C.U., Iversen, P., Jouzel, J., Stauffer, B. and Steffensen, J. P. (1992). Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core. Nature, 359: 311–313.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kareiva, P. and Andersen, M. (1988). Spatial aspects of species interactions. In: Hastings, A. (ed.) Community Ecology: Workshop held at Davis, California, April 1986. Springer, New York. pp. 35–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellogg, W.W. and Schneider, S.H. (1974). Climate stabilization: for better or worse? Science, 186: 1163–1172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kellogg, W.W. and Schwäre, R. (1981). Climatic Change and Society: Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1992). Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate. Nature, 360: 328–330.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerr, R.A. (1992). Pollutant haze cools the greenhouse. Science, 255: 682–683.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiehl, J. and Briegleb, B.P. (1993). The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing. Science, 260: 311–314.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levin, S.A. (1992). The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology, 73: 1943–1967.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen, R.S. (1990). Some coolness concerning global warming. Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 77: 288–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovins, A.B. and Lovins, L.H. (1992). Profitability stabilizing global climate. Climatic Change, 22: 89–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacDonald, G.J. (1990). Role of methane clathrates in past and future climates. Climatic Change, 16 (3): 247–282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malone, T.F. and Roederer, J.G. (eds.) (1984). Global Change. ICSU Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R.J. (1994). Multiple century response of a coupled ocean- atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Journal of Climate, 7: 5–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin, P., Rosenberg, N. and McKenney, M.S. (1989). Sensitivity of evapotranspiration in a wheat field, a forest, and a grassland to changes in climate and direct effects of carbon dioxide. Climatic Change, 14 (2): 117–152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, K.A. and Brown, J.H. (1992). Using montane mammals to model extinctions due to global change. Conservation Biology, 6 (3): 409–415.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L.O., Katz, R.W. and Schneider, S.H. (1984).Changes in the probabilities of extreme high temperature events with changes in global mean temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23: 1601–1613.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L.O., Schneider, S.H., Thompson, S.L. and McDaniel, L.R. (1990). Analysis of climate variability in general circulation models: comparison with observations and changes in variability in 2xC02experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research, 95: 20469–20490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan G. and Keith, D. (1995). Subjective judgements by climate experts. Environmental Science and Technology. (In press.)

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M.G. (1993). Risk analysis and management. Scientific American, July: 32–41

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1993). Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world. Bioscience, 43(11): 752–761.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. and Simon, J.L. (1994). Scarcity or Abundance? A Debate on the Environment. W.W.Norton, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Academy of Sciences (1978). International Perspectives on the Study of Climate and Society. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Academy of Sciences (1987). Current Issues in Atmospheric Change. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Academy of Sciences (1988). Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for US Contributions to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Academy of Sciences (1992). Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. (1994). Expert opinion on climatic change. American Scientist, 82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oeschger, H. and Arquit, A. (1991). In: Bradley, R.S. (ed.) Global Changes of the Past. UCAR/Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, Boulder, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • Office of Technology Assessment (1991). Changing by Degrees, Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearman, G.I. (ed.) (1988). Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change. CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peters, R. and Lovejoy, T. (eds.) (1992). Global Warming and Biological Diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan, V. (1981). The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the C02 climate problem. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 38: 918–930.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Revelle, R. and Suess, H. (1957). Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric C02 during past and present decades. Tellus, 9: 18–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rind, D., Goldberg, R. and Ruedy, R. (1989). Change in climate variability in the 21st century. Climatic Change, 14: 5–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Root, T.L. (1992). Effects of global climate change on North American birds and their communities. In: Kingsolver, J., Kareiva, P. and Huey, P. (eds.) Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, pp. 280–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Root, T.L. and Schneider, S.H. (1993). Can large-scale climatic models be linked with multiscale ecological studies? Conservation Biology, 7: 256–270.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Root, T.L. and Schneider, S.H. (1995). Ecology and Climate: Research Strategies and Implications. Science, 269: 331–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J. (ed.) (1993). Towards an integrated impact assessment of climate change: the Mink Study. Climatic Change, 24(1–2). (Special Issue)

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J. and Scott, M.J. (1994). Implications of policies to prevent climate change for future food security. Global Environmental Change, 4(1): 49–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J. and Scott, M.J. (1995). Implications of policies to prevent climate change for future food security. In: Downing, T.E. (ed.) Climate Change and World Food Security. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M., Fischer, G. and Frohberg, K. (1993). Climate change and world food supply, demand and trade: who benefits, who loses? Global Environmental Change, 4(1): 7–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schelling, T.C. (1983). Climatic change: implications for welfare and policy. In: Changing Climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. pp. 449–482

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M.E. and Ramankutty, N. (1992). Implications for global warming of intercycle solar irradiance variations. Nature, 360: 330–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1987). An international program on global change: can it endure? Climatic Change, 10:211–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1988). The whole earth dialogue. Issues in Science and Technology, 4(3): 93–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1989). The changing climate. Scientific American, 261: 70–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1990). Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? Vintage Books, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1990). The global warming debate heats up: an analysis and perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71: 1292–1304.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1991). Response to Hugh Elsaesser. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 72: 1009–1011

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. (1994). Detecting climatic change signals: are there any ‘fingerprints’ Science, 263: 341–347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Mesirow, L.E. (1976). The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival Plenum Publishing, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Thompson, S.L. (1981). Atmospheric C02 and climate: importance of the transient response. Journal of Geophysical Research, 86: 3135–3147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Thompson, S.L. (1985). Future changes in the global atmosphere. In: Repetto, R. (ed.) The Global Possible: Resources, Development and the New Century. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, pp. 397–430.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Turner, B.L. (1994). Report of the 1994 Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Session on Surprise and Global Environmental Change. Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • SMIC Report (1971). Inadvertent Climate Modification: Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, p. 308.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J.B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.) (1988). The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Draft Report to Congress. Vols. 1 and 2. US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Planning, and Evaluation, Office of Research and Development. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solow, A.R. and Broadus, J.M. (1989). On the detection of greenhouse warming. Climatic Change, 15 (3): 449–454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, K.C., Lamorey, G.W., Doyle, G.A., Alley, R.B., Grootes, Mayewski, P.A., White, J.W.C, and Barlow, L.K. (1993). The ’flickering switch’ of late Pleistocene climate change. Nature, 361: 432–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, S.L. and Schneider, S.H. (1979). A seasonal zonal energy balance climate model with an interactive lower layer. Journal of Geophysical Research, 84: 2401–2414.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, S.L. and Schneider, S.H. (1982). C02 and climate: the importance of realistic geography in estimating the transient response. Science, 217: 1031–1033.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waggoner, P.E. (chairman) (1992). Council for Agricultural Science and Technology, Preparing U.S. Agriculture for Global Climate Change. Task Force Report 119. Ames, Iowa. p. 96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Washington, W.M. and Meehl, G.A. (1989). Climate sensitivity due to increased C02: experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 4: 1–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weihe, W.H. and Mertens, R. (1991). Human well-being, diseases and climate. In: Jager, J. and Ferguson, H.L. (eds.) Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 345–359.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woillard, G.M. and Mook, W.G. (1982). Carbon-14 dates at grande pile: correlation of land and sea chronologies. Science, 215: 159–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

    Stephen H. Schneider

Authors
  1. Stephen H. Schneider
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, 1a Mansfield Road, OX1 3TB, Oxford, UK

    Thomas E. Downing

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1996 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Schneider, S.H. (1996). The Future of Climate: Potential for Interaction and Surprises. In: Downing, T.E. (eds) Climate Change and World Food Security. NATO ASI Series, vol 37. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61086-8_4

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61086-8_4

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-64687-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-61086-8

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation