Scenario analysis of turn around and back stop strategies as open system simulation (OSS)

Abstract

The scenario technique is often used as an addition to the normal, qualitative and quantitative prognosis techniques, such as exponential smoothing, decomposition methods, regression analysis, or the S-curve method. Those methods base on the extrapolation of past data into future. Scenario techniques are here applied for the preparation and support of decisions. Moreover, it aims at revealing the future development of the object of analysis basing on alternative environmental conditions. The main difference of scenario analysis and traditional prognosis techniques is the deliberate acceptance of insecurity about the correctness of future-orientated, managerial decisions. Prognoses in the sense of trend extrapolation over time-spans of up to ten years suggest a completely clear and definite line of development to the decision makers on which complex company strategies can be built.