Abstract
The potential of plant and animal populations to spread over the landscape must be better understood in order to predict biotic responses to Global Change. The fossil record has potential for providing a record of indigenous species as they have shifted ranges in response to past changes of climate (Davis 1976, 1981; Huntley & Birks 1983; Prentice et al. 1991). Our purpose in this paper is to examine whether fossil pollen can provide a clear record of range shifts. We use a model of pollen dispersal to ask how the sizes and locations of lakes affect the way fossil pollen records an approaching population. Can small populations established in advance of the species front be detected? Do changes in pollen deposition give accurate estimates of the intrinsic growth rate of populations of invading species? We are using a simulation model, POLLSCAPE (Sugita 1994), that simulates heterogeneous vegetation on a landscape and calculates pollen dispersal to lakes. The results of the experiments provide guidelines for interpretation of fossil pollen records, and suggest how future studies can be designed to maximize information on past range shifts in response to changing climate.
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Davis, M.B., Sugita, S. (1997). Reinterpreting the fossil pollen record of Holocene tree migration. In: Huntley, B., Cramer, W., Morgan, A.V., Prentice, H.C., Allen, J.R.M. (eds) Past and Future Rapid Environmental Changes. NATO ASI Series, vol 47. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-60599-4_14
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-60599-4_14
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