On the decline of nations

Abstract

The idea that nations decline calls to mind the grander hypothesis that civilizations or cultures decline as put forward by Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee.²² I must confess to a considerable sympathy for the Spenglerian-type argument. The standard concert format today seems always to begin with a 20th century piece, and end with something from the 18th or 19th century. Regardless of how one judges the modern piece as music, one is struck by the contrast between it and the older works as statements about the two eras. So often the modern piece is dissonant with harsh sounds and uneven tempi, as if the composer wishes to capture the mood of a city at rush hour. Beautiful it well might be, but it is beautiful in a way which differs dramatically and tellingly from its musical forerunners.