Living on the Edge of a Volcano -Scenarios for Montserrat

Abstract

The volcanic disaster is not only to be understood as a development constraint for Montserrat, but also as an impulse. It offers the exceptional opportunity to consciously encourage structural transformations. Vulnerability can be reduced, rise given to the hopes of the affected, their capacities and abilities fostered and their resilience improved. It should be the aim to involve a great many different people in reconstruction planning, purposefully utilising their ideas and skills. Reconstruction planning should be organised as a process, teaching the people step-by-step how to manage complexity and uncertainty with respect to their long-term interests and priorities. An approximation to this goal will be carried out in this paper in a two-fold approach: a scenario project in Hamburg and later on a scenario workshop on Montserrat. Despite their different approaches, which will be explained below, both operations had the same objective: contributing to improving the long-term options for Montserrat during and after the volcanic crisis.

Let us blind a new future. It’s never going to be the same as the clock tower in old Plymouth. But we can dream. And then we can make it reality (Allison).