Detection of Company Failure and Global Risk Forecasting
Work on detecting and monitoring company risk has greatly increased over the last ten years both in credit reference agencies or associations of credit managers and in banks or public bodies which monitor the national and international economic situation. The Banque de France’s work on risk is part of its credit supervision and banking system refinancing responsibilities.
Since 1982, the Banque de France’s research into operational credit scoring has intensified with the use of increasingly vast and reliable databases. The aim is to describe risk in statistical terms and create medium-term forecasts for firms in France. The tools created provide both an individual risk diagnosis for each firm and an overview of company risk as a whole. This paper gives a progress report on the work carried out and some indications of the prospects for the future.
KeywordsPosterior Probability Linear Discriminant Analysis Commercial Bank Size Category Risk Class
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- M. BARDOS, D. PLIHON (1999): Detection of risk sectors. The IRISK method,Banque de France, Bulletin n° 69, septembre 1999.Google Scholar
- M. BARDOS (1998a): Risque et taille des entreprises industrielles (Risk and size of industrial firms), Banque de France, direction des Entreprises, PECOM 832–9805.Google Scholar
- M. BARDOS (1998b): Detecting the risk of company failure at Banque de France, Journal of Banking and Finance, n° 22, 1998Google Scholar
- M. BARDOS (1998c): Le score BDFI: du diagnostic individuel àl’analyse de portefeuille (The BDFI Score: from individual diagnosis to portfolio analysis), Les études de l’Observatoire des entreprises, Banque de France, 1998Google Scholar
- M. BARDOS, W.H. ZHU (1998): Comparison of linear discriminant analysis and neural networks, application for the detection of company failures,in Bio- mimetic approaches in management science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998Google Scholar
- M. BARDOS (1995): Les défaillances d’entreprises dans l’industrie: ratios significatifs, processus de défaillances, détection précoce (Company failures in industry: significant ratios, failure processes, early detection), Collection Entreprise B 95/03, Banque de France.Google Scholar
- J. BESSIS (1995): Gestion des risques et gestion actif-passif des banques, DallozGoogle Scholar