Statistics — an Indispensable Tool in Dynamical Modeling

Abstract

The role of statistical analysis in the process of establishing and utilising ocean and other environmental models is discussed. A general state space model approach is adopted. In “quasi-realistic models,” statistical thinking is encoded in the parameterisations and is required for extracting experimental evidence and for validation. Data assimilation techniques are used to systematically combine observational evidence and quasi-realistic models. While quasi-realistic models serve as complex substitute reality, is dynamical knowledge represented through simplified models. These “cognitive” idealised models have to be fitted to observational data when adapted to real situations.