Introduction to PART III

Abstract

The basic issue to be analysed in this part of the volume is the role of technological progress in stemming the growth of emissions in the longer term. While technological improvements will play an important role in the trends of energy demand and related emissions even in the short to medium term, it is clearly over a long time horizon that its impact can really be felt. This is because the process of technological innovation towards specific targets, such as reduced carbon intensity of the energy system, can normally only occur after a prolonged and sustained effort and it involves many phases, like research and development (R&D), initial demonstration, commercialisation and wider diffusion. R&D can be very time consuming and its results are, to some extent, unpredictable. Even after a successful R&D phase, there is a long time interval before the new technological advance is fully commercialised and accepted by the market. The longevity of much of the energy stock results in long delays between the introduction of a new technology in the market and it having a material impact on energy use patterns.