Global Outlook

Abstract

The global economic and energy outlook plays a critical part in the analysis and results of this volume. The energy sector is, to a large extent, already operating within a world context and any regional analysis that does not take into account international influences is likely to prove deficient. One extreme illustration of this is the oil market, which is globally integrated. It is simply not possible to examine future oil market trends in the EU without taking into account global supply and demand, which will determine future oil prices. Similar considerations apply in the case of natural gas. European gas prices and demand will depend not only on the developments in countries, like Russia, that supply gas to the EU but also on countries as far afield as China since they are likely competitors as consumers of Russian gas.

ArticleNote

²All projections in this chapter are based on the POLES model. The main authors of the chapter are Patrick Criqui of IEPE and Niko Kouvaritakis of ECOSIM, with contributions from Antonio Soria of IPTS.