Skip to main content

A Markov Switching Model of Stock Returns: An Application to the Emerging Markets in Central and Eastern Europe

  • Conference paper
East European Transition and EU Enlargement

Part of the book series: Contributions to Economics ((CE))

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the contagion effects of currency crises on several emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe by analysing the behaviour of the time series of stock returns with a Markov-switching model. The focus of the study are the currency crises in the Czech Republic in May 1997, in Asia in Summer 1997 and in Russia in August 1998.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Lam, Pok-Sang and Mark, Nelson Chung (1990). “Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices”. American Economic Review, 80, 398–418.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doornik,Jurgen A. (1999). Object-Oriented Matrix Programming using Ox 2.1. London: Timberlake Consultants Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garcia, René (1998). “Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in Markov switching models”. International Economic Review,39, 763–788.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia, René and Pierre Perron (1996). “An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts”. Review of Economics and Statistics,78, 111–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, James D. (1989). “A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle”. Econometrica, 57, 357–384.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krolzig, Hans-Martin (1998). Econometric Modelling of Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions using MSVAR for Ox. Oxford: Oxford University, Institute for Economics and Statistics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krolzig, Hans-Martin (1999). International Business Cycles: Regime Shifts in the Stochastic Process of Economic Growth. Oxford: University of Oxford, Applied Economics Discussion Paper No. 194.

    Google Scholar 

  • Linne, Thomas (1999).Contagion Effects of the Central and East European Currency Crises. Halle/Saale: IWH, Discussion Paper No. 96

    Google Scholar 

  • Schaller, Huntley and van Norden, Simon (1997). “Regime switching in stock market returns”. Applied Financial Economics, 7, 177–191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Linne, T. (2002). A Markov Switching Model of Stock Returns: An Application to the Emerging Markets in Central and Eastern Europe. In: Charemza, W.W., Strzała, K. (eds) East European Transition and EU Enlargement. Contributions to Economics. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57497-9_23

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57497-9_23

  • Publisher Name: Physica, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-7908-1501-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-57497-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics