Abstract
Most real-world systems exhibit multiple paths to failure. Yet mainly the likelihoods of failure associated with these failure paths have been analyzed. In order to effectively manage the risk associated with systems, both the likelihoods of failure and the consequences of multiple failure paths should be considered. Therefore, this paper develops a methodology for evaluating risk from the perspective of compound failure modes. Compound failure modes are defined as two or more paths to failure with consequences that depend on the occurrence of combinations of failure paths. In such a situation (of compound failure modes), it is important to have knowledge of the joint probability distribution of the failure path occurrences and their consequences. Through using extreme events analysis the likelihoods of failure along with the consequences are evaluated to quantify the risk associated with compound failure modes. Subsequently, we present a multiobjective tradeoff analysis of cost vs. risk for failure modes where a decision maker is able to see the incremental risk of each failure mode of the system. Examples illustrate the usefulness of the methodology.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Asbeck, E. L., and Y. Y. Haimes (1984). “The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method (PMRM),” Large Scale Systems, 6(1), 13–38.
Chankong, V. and Y. Y. Haimes (1983). Multiobjective Decision Making Theory and Methodology, Elsevier Science Publishing, New York.
Haimes, Y.Y. (1993). “Risk of Extreme Events and Fallacy of the Expected Value,” Control and Cybernetics.
Haimes, Y.Y., J. H. Lambert, and D. Li (1992). “Risk of Extreme Events in a Multiobjective Framework,” Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 28, 201–209.
Haimes, Y.Y., D. Li, P. Karlsson, and J. Mitsiopoulos (1990). “Extreme Events: Risk Management,” In Systems and Control Encyclopedia, Supplementary Volume 1, M.G. Singh (Editor-in-Chief), Pergamon Press, Oxford.
Hines, William and Douglas C. Montgomery (1990). Probability and Statistics in Engineering and Management Science, Third Edition.
Johnson-Payton, L.R. (1997). Risk Management of Compound Failure Modes in Engineering Systems, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Systems Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA.
Karlsson, P-O., and Y.Y. Haimes (1988). “Risk-based Analysis of Extreme Events,” Water Resources Research, 24(1), 9–20.
Lambert, J.H., L.R. Johnson, and Y.Y. Haimes (1996). “The Impact of Multiple Failure Modes in Risk Analysis for Civil Infrastructure Management,” Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VI, Y.Y. Haimes, D.A. Moser, and E.Z. Stakhiv, Eds., American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 80–105.
Lowrance, W. (1976). Of Acceptable Risk, William Kaufmann, Inc., Los Altos, CA.
Mitsiopoulos, J., and Y.Y. Haimes (1989). “Generalized Quantification of Risk Associated with Extreme Events,” Risk Analysis, 9(2), 243–254.
Schooff, R. (1996). HEM for Software Acquisition Risk, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Systems Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2000 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Johnson-Payton, L.R., Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J.H. (2000). A Methodology For Risk Management Of Compound Failure Modes. In: Haimes, Y.Y., Steuer, R.E. (eds) Research and Practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 487. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57311-8_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57311-8_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-67266-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-57311-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive