Benefits of Early Warning from the Viewpoint of the Insurance Industry

Abstract

Losses from natural disasters have increased dramatically since the sixties. Consequently, loss prevention measures are becoming increasingly important reducing as a means of minimizing the loss burden from such events, particularly in the insurance sector. At the same time, methods of forecast, prediction, early warning and alert have become more sophisticated, more viable and more reliable, at least for some types of hazard. However, the applicability of event forecasts/predictions and early warnings differs according to the type of hazard and the lead time available to carry them out. While there are many well-functioning operational warning systems for hydro-meteorological events, it is still difficult to warn of geological hazards. The success of warning systems for hydro-meteorological events has been observed particularly with respect to tropical cyclones (Hugo/South Carolina 1989), storm surges (North Sea 1995) and floods (Odra 1997). Here, modern methods of detection, observation, evaluation and communication methods, e.g. by satellite, provide a good basis for warning a threatened region of an imminent extreme event. The experience with volcanic eruption predictions is mixed. Successful evacuation (Pinatubo 1992, Rabaul 1994, Mon-tserrat 1996) does not necessarily result in lower insured losses. To anticipate the onset of an earthquake remains the biggest challenge of all. The opportunities for loss reduction on the basis of real-time early warning systems (such as shutting off energy supply and critical facilities as already implemented at some locations in California, Mexico and Taiwan) are promising but still need to be tested during severe events.