The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back

Abstract

The network model reveals deep similarities between social changes and many natural phenomena. The spread of ideas and epidemics, for instance, are both examples of percolation. An important process is the “connectivity avalanche” in which a network undergoes a phase transition from a fragmented set of nodes to a single connected whole. Models of complex systems rely on systems being closed, disconnected from events out of the norm. Extreme events can produce a cascade that connects normal events to a wider network in which many new and unexpected events become possible. Among other things, this change helps to explain the unexpected way in which major accidents occur.

When anything is used to its full potential, it will break.¹