The Snowball Effect

Abstract

Events sometimes form cycles in which the outcome of one event feeds back into itself, leading to ever bigger consequences, or “positive feedback”. Examples include cycles of revenge between rival groups, growth of compound interest, and the formation of market price “bubbles”. In contrast to negative feedback, which dampens change, positive feedback sends systems out of control. It converts small, local differences into large, global patterns. Examples include the way real estate prices soar in some areas, and the way some media performers rise to become “superstars”. Positive feedback also played a part in increasing levels of sugar and salt in processed foods and a resulting rise in the incidence of diabetes and heart disease in western countries.

Expansion means complexity, and complexity means decay.¹