Effort and Risk Prediction for Healthcare Software Projects Delivered on the Web

Abstract

This chapter describes a case study where Bayesian networks (BNs) were used to construct an expert-based software effort and risk-prediction model for use by a large healthcare organisation in Auckland (New Zealand) to manage healthcare software projects delivered on the Web. This model, which contains 38 factors and 37 corresponding relationships, was solely elicited from expert knowledge, with the participation of 7 project managers, and was validated using data from 22 past finished projects. The model led to numerous changes in process and also in business. The company adapted their existing effort and risk management process to be in line with the model that was created, and the use of a mathematically-based model also led to an increase in the number of projects being outsourced to this company by other company branches worldwide. In addition, their predictions improved significantly.