Abstract
Moore’s law is a famous law in the field of computer hardware, stating that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every 2 years. In this report, we do an analysis of Moore’s law on consumer-class Intel processors to see how well Moore’s law has been doing on predicting the number of transistors of Intel processors, and whether this trend will continue in the future. We take a statistical approach by using linear regression and extrapolation. By matching actual data against the model of Moore’s law and calculating r-square, we are able to conclude that although Moore’s law has made close predictions for single-core processors, the time interval for a double in multi-core processors is actually longer than Moore’s law, thus Intel will fall behind Moore’s law in the future.
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Appendices
Appendix A
This appendix shows details on the data we use in Sect. 42.4.2. The dataset we use is an Intel press release entitled “The Evolution of a Revolution,” it is an overview of Intel processor history. We retrieved it at:
http://download.intel.com/pressroom/kits/IntelProcessorHistory.pdf
After removing all data after Pentium D (Pentium D is also removed) and all data from nonconsumer processors, the data we use for fitting are in Table 42.2.
Appendix B
This appendix shows details on the data we use in Sect. 42.4.3. We retrieve the data in Table 42.3 from the ARK of Intel, all except the last two entries for 2011 and 2012.
We retrieved the entries for 2011 and 2012 from a press report on ANANDTECH.com
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4798/ivy-bridge-148b-transistors
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Chen, J. (2014). Analysis of Moore’s Law on Intel Processors. In: Jia, L., Liu, Z., Qin, Y., Zhao, M., Diao, L. (eds) Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Electrical and Information Technologies for Rail Transportation (EITRT2013)-Volume II. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 288. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-53751-6_42
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-53751-6_42
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