Commentary on “Global Change and Sustainable Development”

Abstract

Looking at the expected results, as they have been formulated by Jan Rotmans, the conceptual model Targets aims to serve researchers, policy analysts and policy makers as an integrated assessment framework for questions connected with Global Change and Sustainable Development. Targets therefore shall cover quantitative and qualitative linkages among social, economic and biophysical processes to elucidate effects on ecosystems and humans on the global scale. Although the disaggregation to the level of “major world regions” is scheduled for the next phase of model development, the first version will have to take scale dependencies into account, just as, for example, the first version of the integrated soil model which is part of the biophysical model. However, having already entered this topic, it has to be questioned whether there is additional need to classify and to describe the interactions between human activities and global phenomena in order to identify those problems and actions which are predestined to be treated in the presented Targets approach. From the perspective of possible users of Targets the value of the model will depend on the extent, the model structure and model results will reveal the users’ range of action and responsibility. If for example Unep will use the model, the developed strategies will have to include a valuation of the actions being within the range of possibilities on the national level.