Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Optimization and Discrete Choice in Urban Systems pp 272–309Cite as

Geographic Transfer of Travel Choice Models: Evaluation and Procedures

  • Conference paper

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems ((LNE,volume 247))

Abstract

This paper reviews research results which evaluate model transferability and methods of updating in transfer application. Early expectations that disaggregate choice models would be generally transferable across a wide range of application contexts are not supported bv research studies. indeed, the reported level of transferability varies across model types and specification and differences in transfer contexts. These studies also indicate that methods of transfer model adjustment are very effective in both increasing the average level of transfer effectiveness and decreasing the variability of transfer effectiveness across specifications and contexts. This review establishes the need for additional research to identify the effect on transfer effectiveness of differences in model type and specification and differences in characteristics of transfer contexts. It also establishes the importance of adopting updating procedures when employing model transfer.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Adler, T.J., 1975, A Joint Disaggregate Model of Non-Work Urban Passenger Travel Demand, MSc thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Atherton, T.J. and Ben-Akiva, M.E., 1976, Transferability and Updating of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models, Transportation Research Record, 610, 12–18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., 1979, Development and Calibration of the Seattle Mode Choice Models, prepared for the Municipality of Metropolitan Seattle under subcontract with Parsons, Brinckerhoff, Quade and Douglas, Seattle, WN.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., 1981, Development and Calibration of the New Orleans Mode Choice Models, prepared for the Regional Planning Commission, New Orleans, LA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., 1982, Calibration of the St. Louis Mode Choice Models, prepared for the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council and the Bi-State Development Agency, St. Louis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., and Texas Transportation Institute, 1979, Development and Calibration of the Travel Demand Models for the Houston-Galveston Area, prepared for the Metropolitan Transit Authority, Houston, TX.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Akiva, M.E., 1981, Issues in Transferring and Updating Travel Behavior Models, in Stopher, P.R., Meyburg, A.J. and Brog, W. (Eds.), New Horizons in Travel Behavior Research, D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Akiva, M.E. and Atherton, T.J., 1977, Methodology for Short-Range Travel Demand Predictions, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 224-261.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Akiva, M.E. and Lerman, S.R., 1974, Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work, Transportation, 3, 4, 357–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benham, J.L. and Tardiff, T.J., 1981, Evaluation of Methods to Predict Work Trip Mode Choice, 60th Annual Meetinq, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 1977, Tests of Transferability and Validation of Disaggreqate Behavioral Demand Models for Evaluating the Energy Conservation Potential of Alternative Transportation Policies in Nine US Cities, report prepared for the Federal Energy Administration, Office of Energy Conservation Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daganzo, C, 1979, Multinominal Probit: The Theory and Its Application to Demand Forecasting, Academic Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dehghani, Y., Koushesh, B., Sievert, R. and McKearney, T., 1981, Transferability and an Analysis of Prediction Errors in Mode Choice Models for Work Trips, 60th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Galbraith, R.A. and Hensher, D.A., 1982, Intra-Metropolitan Transferability of Mode Choice Models, Journal of, Transport Economics and Policy, 16, 7–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, H.A.J., 1964, Aggregation in Economic Analysis; An Introductory Survey, Princeton University, New Jersey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horowitz, J., 1976, Effects of Travel Time and Cost on the Frequency and Structure of Automobile Travel, Transportation Research Record, 592, 1–5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S., 1977, Intra-Urban Transferability of Disaggregate Choice Models, Transportation Center Working Paper, Northwestern nniversity, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S., 1983, Predicting Transit Ridership in Response to Transit Service Chanqes, Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, 107, TE 4, 548–564.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Ben-Akiva, M.E., 1977, Aggregate Forecasting With Disaggregate Travel Demand Models Using Normally Available Data, Transportation Decisions in an Age of Uncertainty, Martinus-Nijhoff, Rotterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Chu, C., 1983, Sample Size Effect on Disaggregate Choice Model Estimation and Prediction, 62nd Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Hauser, J.R., 1979, Destination Choice Behavior for Non-Grocery Shopping Trips, Transportation Research Record, 673.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S., Wilmot, C.G. and Kuah, G.K., 1983, The Impact of Scale Adjustment on the Intra-City Transferability, Transportation Center Report, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Pas, E.I., 1983, Multidimensional Choice Model Transferability, Transportation Center Report, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Rose, G., 1983, Transferability of Disaggregate Linear Regression Trip Generation Models, Transportation Center Report, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Wilmot, C.G., 1982a, Transferability Analysis of Disaggregate Choice Models, Transportation Research Record, 895.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppelman, F.S. and Wilmot, C.G., 1982b, Identification of Conditions for Effective Transferability of Disaggregate Choice Models, Report UMTA-429-1, Prepared for US Department of Transportation, Office of University Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lave, C, 1969, A Behavioral Approach to the Mode Split Forecasting, Transportation Research, 3, 4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lerman, S.R., 1975, A Disaggregate Behavioral Model of Urban Mobility Decisions, PhD dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lerman, S.R., 1981, Interspatial, Intraspatial and Temporal Transferability, in Stopher, P.R., Meyburg, A.J. and Brog, W. (Eds.), New Horizons in Travel Behavior Research, D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lisco, T.E., 1967, The Value of Commuters Travel Time: A Study in Urban Transportation, PhD dissertation, Department of Economics, university of Chicago, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Litinas, N., Gonzales, S.L., Lerman, S.R. and Solomon, I., 1981, A Theory of Travel Demand Processes with Integer Outcomes, Center for Transportation Studies, MIT, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Louviere, J.J., 1981, Some Comments on Premature Expectations Regarding Spatial, Temporal and Cultural Transferability of Travel Choice Models, in Stopher, P.R., Meyburg, A.J. and Brog, W. (Eds.), New Horizons in Travel Behavior Research, D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy, P.S., 1981, Further Evidence on the Temporal Stability of Dissaggregate Travel Demand Models, Department of Economics, Purdue University.

    Google Scholar 

  • McPadden, D., 1973, Conditional Logit Analysis in Qualitative Choice Behavior, in Zarembka, Z. (Ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • McFadden, D., 1976, Properties of the Multinominal Model, Working Paper 7617, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • McFadden, D., 1978, The Theory and Practice of Disaggregate Demand Forecasting for Various Models in Urban Transportation, Emerging Transportation Planning Method, Brown, W.F. (Ed.), US Department of Transportation, Office of University Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • McFadden, D. and Reid, F., 1975, Aggregate Travel Demand Forecasting from Disaggregate Behavioral Models, Transportation Research Record, 534.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parody, T.E., 1977, An Analysis of Disaggregate Mode Choice Models in Prediction, 56th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Co., 1972, Implementation of the N-Dimensional Logit Model, Final Report to Comprehensive Planning Organization, San Diego, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruijgrok, C.J. and van Essen, P.G., 1980, The Development and Application of Disaggregate Poisson Model for Trip Generation, 59th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, G.W., 1983, Development of a Travel Demand Model Set for the New Orleans Region, 62nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spiegel, S., 1956, Non-Parametric Statistics, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stopher, P.R., 1969, A Probability Model of Travel Mode Choice for the Work Journey, Highway Research Record, 283, 57–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Talvitie, A., 1981, Refinement and Application of Individual Choice Models in Travel Demand Forecasting, Vol. 2, State University of New York at Buffalo, DOT Contract DOT-FH-11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Talvitie, A., Dehghani, Y., Supernak, J., Morris, M., Anderson, M., Dejohn, A., Kousheski, B. and Feverstein, S., 1981, Refinement and Application of individual Choice Models in Travel Demand Forecasting, Vol. 1, State University of New York at Buffalo, DOT contract DOT-FH-11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Talvitie, A.P. and Kirshner, D., 1978, Specification, Transferability and the Effect of Data Outliers in Modelling the Choice of Mode in Urban Travel, Transportation, 7, 311–331.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theil, H., 1955, Linear Aggregation of Economic Relationships, North Holland/ American Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmermans, G.V.F., 1982, A Comparative Analysis of Disaggregate Trip Generation Models, MS thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Train, K.E., 1978, The Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Data Specification in Mode Choice Models, Transportation, 7, 3, 301–309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watson, P.L. and Westin, R.B., 1976, Transferability of Disaggregate Mode Choice Models, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 5, 1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westin, R. and Manski, C.F., 1979, Theoretical and Conceptual Development in Demand Modelling, in Hensher, D.A. and Stopher, P.R. (Eds.), Behavioral Travel Modelling, Croom-Helm, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilmot, C.G., 1983, The Impact of Market Segmentation on the Transferability of Discrete Choice Models, PhD dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering and The Transportation Center, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 60201, USA

    Frank S. Koppelman & Geoffrey Rose

Authors
  1. Frank S. Koppelman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Geoffrey Rose
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

    Bruce G. Hutchinson

  2. Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Peter Nijkamp

  3. Department of Town Planning, Institute of Science and Technology, University of Wales, Cardiff, Wales, UK

    Michael Batty

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1985 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Koppelman, F.S., Rose, G. (1985). Geographic Transfer of Travel Choice Models: Evaluation and Procedures. In: Hutchinson, B.G., Nijkamp, P., Batty, M. (eds) Optimization and Discrete Choice in Urban Systems. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 247. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-51020-5_16

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-51020-5_16

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-15660-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-51020-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation