Abstract
Since Nelson & Plosser’s (1982) seminal paper, the permanent nature of the macroeconomic fluctuations has become the centre of intense debate. The traditional view that macroeconomic time series, namely the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are well described as transitory deviations from a deterministic trend is challenged by the identification of a large permanent component in the series, meaning that the fluctuations represent persistent movements, i.e., that the series follow a stochastic trend. The economic implications of this conclusion are substantial, particularly to the Business Cycle Theory (see Andrade (1990)).
We wish to thank Prof. Bento Murteira and two anonymous referees for the helpful comments and encouragement, and Carlos Farinha for technical support. Responsibility for all errors is entirely ours.
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© 1992 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Andrade, I., Proença, I. (1992). Search for a Break in the Portuguese GDP 1833–1985 with Bootstrap Methods. In: Jöckel, KH., Rothe, G., Sendler, W. (eds) Bootstrapping and Related Techniques. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 376. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48850-4_17
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48850-4_17
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