Abstract
Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies in the economic sphere. The process of displacement of a product or process associated with a technology by a product or process of a new technology, the so-called technological substitution, has been investigated, e.g., by means of diffusion studies (Mansfield 1971, for a rewiew see e.g. Davies 1987) and pioneering works of technological substitution (Fisher, Pry 1971, for an overview see Linstone, Sahal 1976 and Mahanjan, Peterson 1985). Besides empirically founded studies of substitution curves the mechanisms of the process of substitution and its mathematical description is investigated. Corresponding models deal with the imitation aspects, diffusion processes, the rate of absorption of new technologies in different industries, the economic dimension of the substitution process in terms of supply and demand Pry (1991), that the substitution process is based on a competition between new and old technologies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Alchian, A.: Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory. In: Journal of Political Economy 58(1950)211–221.
Allen, P. M.; Ebeling, W.: Evolution and the Stochastic Description of Simple Ecosystems. In: BioSystems 16(1983)113.
Allen, P. M. (Ed.): Management and Modeling of Dynamic Systems. In: European Journal of Operational Research 25(1986)1.
Ayres, R. U.: Evolutionary Economics and Environmental Imperatives. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 2(1991)2, p. 255–271.
Bartholomay, A. F.: Bull. Math. Biophys. 20, 175(1958), 21, 363 (1959).
Bhargava, S. C.: Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations and the Mechanism of Technological Substitution. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 35(1989), p. 319–326.
Brian Arthur, W.: Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Look-In by Historical Events. In: The Economic Journal 99(1989)394, p.116–131.
Bruckner, E.; Ebeling, W.; Scharnhorst, A.: Stochastic Dynamics of Instabilities in Evolutionary Systems. In: System Dynamics Review 5(1989)176.
Callen, E. and Shapero D.: A Theory of Social Imitation. In: Physics Today, 27 July, 1974.
Cameron, H. M.; Metcalfe, J. S.: On the Economics of Technological Substitution. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 32(1987), p. 147–162.
Davies, S.: The Diffusion of Process Innovations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1979.
Dosi, G.; Freeman, C.; Nelson, R.; Silverberg, G.; Soete, L. (Eds.): Technical Change and Economical Theory. Pinter Publ., London and New York 1988.
Ebeling, W.: Stochastic Models of Competition Processes in Non-Physical Systems. In: Syst. Anal. Model. Simul. 8(1991)3.
Ebeling, W.; Feistel, R.: Stochastic Theory of Molecular Replication Processes with Selection Character. In: Annalen der Physik (Leipzig) 34(1977)81–90.
Ebeling W.; Sonntag, I., Schimansky-Geier, L.: On the Evolution of Biological Macromolecules. II. Catalytic Networks. In: Studia biophysica 84(1981)87.
Ebeling, W.; Schmelzer, J.: Koexistenz von Sorten in nichtlinearen autokatalytischen Parallelreaktionen. In: Z. phys. Chemie 261(1980)31;
Ebeling, W.; Schmelzer, J.: Koexistenz von Sorten in nichtlinearen autokatalytischen Parallelreaktionen. In: Z. phys. Chemie studia biophysica 78(1980)31;
Ebeling, W.; Schmelzer, J.: Koexistenz von Sorten in nichtlinearen autokatalytischen Parallelreaktionen. In: Z. phys. Chemie 80(1980)53.
Ebeling, W.; Feistel, R.: Physik der Selbstorganisation und Evolution. Akademie-Verlag Berlin 1982, 1986.
Ebeling, W.; Feistel, R. and Engel, A.: Physik der Evolutionsprozesse. Akademie-Verlag Berlin 1989.
Ebeling, W.; Sonntag, I.: Stochastic Description of Evolutionary Processes in Under-occupied Systems. In: BioSystems 19(1986)91.
Eigen, M.: The Selforganization of Matter and the Evolution of Biological Macromolecules. In: Naturwissenschaften 58(1971)465.
Eigen, M.; Schuster, P.: The Hypercyde. In: Naturwissenschaften 64(1977)541;
Eigen, M.; Schuster, P.: The Hypercyde. In: Naturwissenschaften 65(1978)341.
Faber, M.; Proops, J. R. L.: Evolution, Time, Production and the Environment. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg 1990.
Feistel, R.; Ebeling, W.: Evolution of Complex Systems. Verlag der Wissenschaften, Berlin 1989, Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht 1989.
Fischer, J. C.; Pry, R. H.: A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change (New York)3 (1971) 75.
Fisher, R. A.: The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. Clarendon Press, Oxford 1930.
Haken, H.: Advanced Synergetics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin et al. 1983.
Hofbauer, J.; Sigmund, K.: Evolutionstheorie und dynamische Systeme. Parey-Verlag, Hamburg 1984.
Jimenez Montano, M.A.; Ebeling, W.: A Stochastic Evolutionary Model of Technological Change. In: Collective Phenomena 3(1980)107.
Linstone, D.; Sahal, D.: Technological Substitution: Forecasting Technologies and Applications. Elsevier, New York 1976.
Mahajan, V.; Peterson R.A.: Models of Innovation Diffusion. Sage Publ. 1985.
Mansfield, E.: Technological Change, Norton & Co., New York, 1971.
Meade, N.: Technological Substitution: A Framework of Stochastic Models. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 36(1989), p. 389–400.
Montroll, E. W.; Shuler, K. E.: Dynamics of Technological Evolution: Random Walk Model for the Research Enterprise. In: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 76(1979)12, 6030–6034.
Mosekilde, E.: Technical Economic Succession and the Economic Long Wave. In: European Journal of Operational Research 25(1986)27–38.
Mosekilde, E.; Aracil, J.; Allen, P.M.: Instabilities and Chaos in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. In: System Dynamics Review 4(1988)14.
Nelson, R.; Winter, S. and Schuette H.: Technical Change in an Evolutionary Model. In: Quarterly J. of Economics 90(1976)90.
Nelson, R.; Winter, S.G.: An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Belknap Press, Boston Mass. 1982.
Nicolis, G.; Prigogine, I.: Selforganization in Non-Equilibrium Systems. Wiley, New York 1977.
Prigogine, I.; Nicolis, G.; Babloyantz, A.: Thermodynamics and Evolution. In: Physics Today 25(1972)38.
Semmler, W. (Ed.): Competition, Instability, and Nonlinear Cycles. Springer-Verlag, Berlin et al. 1985.
Schimansky-Geier, L.: Stochastische Theorie der Nichtgleichgewichtsphaseniibergänge in einkomponetigen bistabilen chemischen Reaktionssystemen. Berlin 1980.
Schumpeter, J.A.: Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Dunker-Humblot, Leipzig 1912.
Silverberg, G.: Embodied Technical Progress in a Dynamic Economic Model: The Self-Organization Paradigm“. In: R.M. Goodwin et al. (Eds.), Nonlinear Models of Fluctuating Growth, Springer-Verlag, Berlin et al. 1984.
Troitzsch, K.G.: Modellbildung und Simulation in den Sozialwissenschaften. Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen 1990.
Weidlich, W.; Haag, G.: Concepts and Models in Quantitative Sociology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin et al. 1983;
Weidlich, W.; Haag, G.: Interregional Migration. Springer-Verlag, Berlin et al. 1988
Weidlich, W.: Physics and Social Science — The Approach of Synergetics. In: Physics Reports 204(1991)1.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ebeling, W., Jiménez-Montaño, M.A., Bruckner, E., Scharnhorst, A. (1992). A stochastic model of technological evolution. In: Haag, G., Mueller, U., Troitzsch, K.G. (eds) Economic Evolution and Demographic Change. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 395. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48808-5_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48808-5_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-56172-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-48808-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive