Abstract
Any mathematical models of human systems that consist of deterministic, mechanical equations are only temporary representations of the structure and organisation present in the system at a particular time. In fact, the structure and organization of the system in question changes qualitatively over time, as the components and interaction mechanisms emerge and change through time. This paper addresses the mathematical modelling of the over-arching process which leads to the emergence and evolution of “ecologies” of interacting entities that make up socio-economic systems. It describes the underlying processes that change the taxonomy of a system, and through which new behaviours and challenges emerge in the system. These changes are essentially unpredictable, as is the expected time of stability of any existing structure and taxonomy. Sustainability and wisdom are therefore shown to lie in the maintenance of the capacity for adaptation and change, rather than in the efficiency of any particular temporarily fixed system. Several applications of these ideas are discussed.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Allen P.M. 1984, Self-Organization and Evolution in Urban Systems in Cities and Regions as Non-linear Decision Systems, AAAS Selected Symposiua, 77, Ed. R. Crosby. Westview Press, Boulder Colorado.
Allen P.M., 1988 Evolution: Why the Whole is greater than the sum of its parts, in Ecodynamics, Soeder & Drepper Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Allen P.M. 1991, Fisheries: Models of learning and Uncertainty, in Pecheries Ouest Africaines, Variabilité, Instabilité et Changement, Eds Ph. Cury & Cl.Roy ORSTOM, Paris
Allen P.M. 1994 Evolution, Sustainability and Industrial Metabolism, in Industrial Metabolism, Eds R. Ayer and U.E. Simonis, United nations University Press, Tokyo
Allen P.M. and Lesser M., 1991, Evolutionary Human Systems: Learning, Ignorance and Subjectivity, in Evolutionary Theories of Economic and Technological Change, Eds P. Saviotti and S. Metcalfe, Harwood, Chur. Harwood, Chur, Switzerland
Allen P.M. and McGlade J., 1987, The Modelling of Human Systems: A Fisheries Example, European Journal of Operational Research, June 1987
Allen P.M. and M. Sanglier, 1979, Dynamic Model of growth in a Central Place System, Geographical Analysis, Vol 11, No 3.
Allen P.M. and M. Sanglier, 1981, Urban Evolution, Self-Organization and Decision Making, Environment and Planning A.
Allen P.M. and J.M. McGlade, 1987, Evolutionary Drive: The Effect of Microscopic Diversity, Error Making and Noise, Foundations of Physics, Vol.17, No.7, July. p723–728
Anderson P.W. Arrow K.J. and Pines D. 1988, Eds. The Economy as a Complex Evolving System, Reading, Addison-Wesley
Blank, S.C., 1991, Chaos in Futures Markets? A Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis, Journal of Futures Markets, 11:p711–728.
Chen, P., 1988, Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Economic Chaos, System Dynamics Review 4.
Clark N. and Juma C. 1987, Long-run Economics — An Evolutionary Approach to Economic Change, London, Pinter Publishers, Limited
Day, R., 1983, The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98:201–213.
Dosi G, Freeman C. Nelson R. Silverberg G. and Soete L. Eds, 1988, Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter, London.
Eigen M. and Schuster P., 1979, The Hypercycle, Springer, Berlin.
Fama, E.F., 1979, Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance, 25:p383–423.
Goodwin R.M., 1951, The Non-Linear Accelerator and the persistence of Business Cycles, Econometrica, Vol.19.
Goodwin R.M. Kruger M. & Vercelli, A. 1984, Nonlinear Models of Fluctuating Growth, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol.228, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York-Tokyo, Springer-Verlag.
Grandmont, J.; Malgrange, P., 1986, Nonlinear Economic Dynamics: Introduction, Journal of Economic Theory 40.
Haken H. 1977, Synergetics, in the Synergetics Series, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg.
Hsieh, D.A., 1991, Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets, The Journal of Finance, 66:p 1639–1877.
Kesley, D., 1988, The Economics of Chaos or the Chaos of Economics, Oxford Economic Papers 40.
Larrain, M., 1991, Empirical Tests of Chaotic Behaviour in a Nonlinear Interest Rate Model, Financial Analysts Journal, Sept-Oct, p 51–62.
Lorenz H.W. 1989, Non-Linear Dynamical Economics and Chaotic Motion, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol.228, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York-Tokyo, Springer-Verlag.
Marshall A., (1890/1927), Principles of Economics, 8th Edition, Macmillan, London.
Murphy, John J., 1986, Techncial Analysis of the Futures Market, New York Institute of Finance, New York.
Muth, J.F., 1961, Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, Econometrica, 29:p 315–335.
Nelson R.R and Winter S. G. 1982, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Cambridge, The Belknap Press of Harvard University press.
Osborne, M.F.M., 1964, Brownian Motion in the Stock Market in P. Cootner, (ed.), “The Random Character of Stock Market Prices”, Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press. (Originally published in 1959)
Peters, E., 1991a, A Chaotic Attractor for the S & P 500, Financial Analysts Journal.
Peters, E., 1989, Fractal Structure in the Capital Markets, Financial Analysts Journal.
Peters, E., 1991b, R/S Analysis using Logarithmic Returns: A Technical Note, Financial Analysts Journal
Prigogine I. and I. Stengers, 1987, Order out of Chaos, Bantam Books, New York
Sanglier M. and P.M. Allen, 1989, Evolutionary Models of Urban Systems: an Application to the Belgian Provinces, Environment and Planning, A, Vol.21. p477–498.
Saviotti P. 1991, The role of variety in economic and technological development, in Evolutionary Theories of Economic and Technological Change, Eds P. Saviotti and S. Metcalfe, Harwood, Chur.
Saviotti P and Metcalfe J., 1991 Present developments and trends in Evolutionary Economics, in Evolutionary Theories of Economic and Technological Change, Eds P. Saviotti and S. Metcalfe, Harwood, Chur.
Savit, R., 1988, When Random is Not Random: An Introduction to Chaos in Market Prices, The Journal of Futures Markets, 8:p 271–289.
Savit, R., 1989, Nonlinearities and Chaotic Effects in Options Prices, The Journal of Futures Markets, 9:p 507–518.
Scheinkman, J.; LeBaron, B., 1989, Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns, Journal of Business, 62:p 311–337.
Schumpeter J., 1934, The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Silverberg G., Dosi G. and Orsenigo L., Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-Organization Model, The Economic Journal, Vol 98 p 1032–1054
Soros, George, 1988, The Alchemy of Finance, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1997 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Allen, P.M. (1997). Evolutionary Complex Systems: The Self-Organization of Communities. In: Fang, F., Sanglier, M. (eds) Complexity and Self-Organization in Social and Economic Systems. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 449. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48406-3_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48406-3_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-62400-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-48406-3
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive