Long Waves in Economic Structure

Abstract

In a previous paper (Menshikov, 1985) we have indicated that the downward phase of the long wave coincides with a structural crisis in the conomy. The crisis manifests itself in widespread stagnation of large groups of relatively old industries which have exhausted their growth potentials, while other, newer groups, continue to flourish and still other industries make their first appearance on the economic scene. Structural change accompanies all phases of the long wave; however, it is during the crisis phase, that there is not simply uneven development of different sectors, but long-term stagnation and downturn in many industries, which in the previous long upturn had served as the backbone and mainstay of general economic growth, and still account for a major part of overall output.